Measured by country status, there has been a dramatic improvement in the past month with an increase of 28 having fewer than 20% of peak new cases per day (our "almost there" category)
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) May 24, 2021
Many of these countries are in Europe
1/ pic.twitter.com/hNiZzfalRE
Important thread with initial data on breakthrough infections in UK by B.1.617.2 variant from India.
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) May 23, 2021
Protection by AZ and Pfizer vaccines is present but much reduced. Impact on severe cases doesn't yet have enough data. https://t.co/9wrdyvjFr4
Note: The new variants are affecting kids more
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) May 23, 2021
Children also suffer not just from the disease but also from long covid.
👇 https://t.co/4E7nRmNZHR
Think about efficacy as risk reduction. 50% efficacy is 1/2 risk, 80% is 1/5 risk, 95% is 1/20 risk
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) May 23, 2021
For these preliminary numbers, Pfizer 2 dose going from 93.4% to 87.9% is 1.8X risk increase (almost a factor of 2), or number of expected cases in a round of transmission https://t.co/ihFhz3yvZZ
The Indian variant arrives in the UK on planes.
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) May 23, 2021
Quarantines are the way to stop it. https://t.co/Iw5OAC9w0p
The US new cases continue to decrease in the US and are down to 30,000, deaths are now at 570 per day.
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) May 23, 2021
1/ pic.twitter.com/8NJ7cVgSD3
Pfizer is significantly less effective against B.1.617.2 variant from India. 👇 https://t.co/KcGbY3p6Ut
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) May 21, 2021
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) May 21, 2021
"More than 80 per cent of Japanese people are not in favour of the Games being held this year, according to a national newspaper poll published Monday."
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) May 21, 2021
1/
‘Risks just too high’: Calls grow to cancel Tokyo Olympics amid Japan’s COVID-19 surge https://t.co/ETYjYnFKV3
Terrible consequence of the new mask CDC guidance is that people cannot protect themselves from infection.
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) May 21, 2021
A person who is sick (even if they don't know it) should be wearing a mask to protect others. It is not just wearing a mask that protects a person from being infected.
1/
Rapid short lockdown is a model for pandemic response
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) May 20, 2021
Liberty Times, Taiwan
1/https://t.co/3dn4U4XK6y
While the UK's cases are about level overall, cases of the Indian variant are rising rapidly, nearly doubling in the last week:https://t.co/7pJcaX1kyF pic.twitter.com/UOxFDIAtQA
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) May 20, 2021
Poorly considered policy based upon weak and often biased (stated conflict of interest) science.
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) May 19, 2021
New mask policy is good:
If we consider individual risk and not shared risk,
If we consider most favorable interpretation of the science,
If we trust people.
Otherwise not at all. https://t.co/TnT4v6Z6hK
Taiwan confirms 240 new domestic COVID-19 cases, two deathshttps://t.co/V1d9dDIQHO
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) May 18, 2021
Some countries report data on flights with cases.
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) May 17, 2021
Having someone on board who is infected is not rare. https://t.co/VJgoF5nwmZ
Singapore warns children susceptible to virus variants, shuts schools https://t.co/lDCyOZCLrs
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) May 17, 2021
Tell the CDC: Revoke dangerous guidance on mask use!
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) May 17, 2021
https://t.co/JesAtngL0X
In Canada, Manitoba's cases are continuing to increase, and are now the highest per capita, as other province cases are declining.https://t.co/BDoYCiamQX pic.twitter.com/RwJdZG66op
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) May 17, 2021
The relaxation of border control that was done applied only to pilots. That was enough.https://t.co/y1RCCbyeiF
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) May 16, 2021
Taiwan, which has had very few community cases throughout the past year, has recently loosened its border restrictions and is now seeing its largest community spread since the beginning of the pandemic.
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) May 16, 2021
1/
US CDC repeated its original mistake that only people who are sick should wear masks. Now they say only people who are unvaccinated should wear masks. Who would put on a mask to tell everyone they are unvaccinated? This endangers those who are unvaccinated directly and indirectly
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) May 14, 2021
COVID remains a dire threat: How to keep schools safe
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) May 15, 2021
"The calculus has changed. Experience shows the B117 variant, now the dominant strain in the United States, is more contagious than the original strain,..
1/https://t.co/Whv3fjQ2BP
COVID returns to Vietnam. 29 new domestic cases on Friday
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) May 15, 2021
1/https://t.co/1NykaurLfe pic.twitter.com/8hbqckWHia
Re Vaccines and the "Best Summer Ever":
— Malgorzata (Gosia) Gasperowicz (@GosiaGasperoPhD) May 1, 2021
W/o public health measures vaccines most likely won't end the pandemic (A)
W/ public health measures vaccines are an amazing tool to help us *stop the virus spread* very fast (B)
@ R=0.5 one can get from 1000 daily cases to 0 in just 40d pic.twitter.com/yxcv6IgQeU
COVID outbreaks that began in big cities in India a few weeks ago are rapidly advancing into rural areas.
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) May 14, 2021
1/ pic.twitter.com/oHPipXsiXj
Covid-19 Outbreak Among 8 Fully Vaccinated Members Of NY Yankee Organization: Implications For CDC Guidance on Masking
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) May 14, 2021
https://t.co/DFSN3qpJ3Q
Inappropriate behavior should be opposed, but, perhaps more importantly, marginalized. https://t.co/0WiXQir1Fi
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) May 13, 2021
The response today to new variants is still following the same failed playbook. https://t.co/cSpZ7lSEna
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) May 12, 2021
⚠️“dramatic rise in UK cases of a variant first discovered in India could undermine roadmap for reopening”, scientists caution. One of 3 key 🇮🇳variants, #B161712, now surged to 6% of all variants in UK, WHO & England both upgraded to “variant of concern”.🧵https://t.co/29FNYyPTtG pic.twitter.com/2UnpCudiXE
— Eric Feigl-Ding (@DrEricDing) May 12, 2021
Johnson will not allow a #Covid19 enquiry until Spring 2022 but this https://t.co/N3vmMIsFrs focusing on 'a precautionary approach' to pandemics demands early focus in UK - with such terrible fatality numbers! @Keir_Starmer @EdwardJDavey @yaneerbaryam
— Jeff Kaye (@Jakdaw09) May 12, 2021
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) May 12, 2021
We should subject wishful thinking to a statistical test. https://t.co/Gt8754krom
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) May 12, 2021
Indian variant is spreading globally
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) May 12, 2021
Near where it is spreading today is another community where it hasn't reached yet but will if we don't stop it. https://t.co/4KEEikikSJ
Taiwan bans large events after small coronavirus outbreak
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) May 11, 2021
Problem: Stopping large events is not enough to stop an outbreak. "Overreaction" is needed. Sooner the better.https://t.co/GITM5VxBdi
Do we really want more rapidly spreading, deadly and possibly vaccine evading variants? Why not stop them before they get here (every here!)
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) May 11, 2021
I have no political position, but the policy statement is spot on: pic.twitter.com/tVQ1tItT47
Taiwan bans large events after small coronavirus outbreak
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) May 11, 2021
Problem: Stopping large events is not enough to stop an outbreak. "Overreaction" is needed. Sooner the better.https://t.co/GITM5VxBdi
Do we really want more rapidly spreading, deadly and possibly vaccine evading variants? Why not stop them before they get here (every here!)
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) May 11, 2021
I have no political position, but the policy statement is spot on: pic.twitter.com/tVQ1tItT47
Protest against reopening in New York. Today. https://t.co/P5HwVZW41r
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) May 10, 2021
Important thread on variants https://t.co/mXkmfuS6BL
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) May 10, 2021
"We provide evidence of likely ongoing transmission of B.1.620 in Lithuania, France, Germany, Spain, Belgium..
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) May 10, 2021
"We make a case for the likely Central African origin
Travel-driven emergence..[of] B.1.620 with multiple VOC-like mutations and deletions https://t.co/fYZe2uIf5c
Unsubstantiated claims of "rare" airborne transmission also don't make logical sense given that rate depends on conditions (so rare in some conditions, common in others). Policy should prevent transmission. https://t.co/7shI1VOFh5
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) May 10, 2021
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) May 8, 2021
Japan's cases and deaths are approaching record highs.
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) May 9, 2021
1/ pic.twitter.com/nvT4C1YBMu
Way to go! https://t.co/BZhoavhWYJ
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) May 9, 2021
Israel's reported infections decreased by 50% in the last week, with 55% of Israelis fully vaccinated. Today they had just 30 new infections -- will they soon reach (and remain) at 0?
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) May 8, 2021
1/ pic.twitter.com/LjIez6zXxk
Incredibly sad--Dr. Rajendra Kapila, New Jersey doctor who was 'giant' in field of infectious diseases dies of #COVID19 in India https://t.co/RBuJmygHLE via @ABC
— Judy Stone (@DrJudyStone) May 7, 2021
Also note HE WAS FULLY VACCINATED w #Pfizer vax
CDC revised its statement now acknowledging the dominance of airborne transmission, but undermined the conclusions with unsubstantiated claims about its frequency. https://t.co/Pp0NUy1SAZ
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) May 8, 2021
@yaneerbaryam said that we need to have an END GOAL, EXIT STRATEGY in place - else it's hard for us to comply with restrictions that seem like they will return endlessly.
— Anjali Venugopalan @ET (@anjalivenu) May 7, 2021
Protect green zones(places with less/zero cases) and gradually expand those.
I just had a chance to read this book review, and the description of societal/institutional failure is spot on. One modification I would make is inserted below
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) May 7, 2021
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Michael Lewis' 'The Premonition' Is A Sweeping Indictment Of The CDC https://t.co/4Mz3EJI66s
India set a new daily record of over 414,000 cases, nearly 4,000 reported deaths. While cases are not growing as rapidly as recently, they are still not declining significantly.
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) May 7, 2021
Implementing very strong restrictions would result in cases declining rapidly.
1/ pic.twitter.com/ayWa2pFOY6
India set a new daily record of over 414,000 cases, nearly 4,000 reported deaths. While cases are not growing as rapidly as recently, they are still not declining significantly.
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) May 7, 2021
Implementing very strong restrictions would result in cases declining rapidly.
1/ pic.twitter.com/ayWa2pFOY6
english version of a public israeli report (october 2020) about the crucial role of open schools in spreading covid-19, by the Israeli Ministry of Health
— Irene Tosetti (@itosettiMD_MBA) May 7, 2021
courtesy @yaneerbaryam https://t.co/qwnQWxQSB9
Science traditionally takes the role of an observer, hence focus on prediction rather than choice of outcome.
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) May 7, 2021
In the context of pandemic and other policy arenas we need to include intention, goal setting, and control.#ZeroCovid
Really important to stop those wishful thinking fantasies about COVID becoming a mild disease. They prevent us from dealing with reality https://t.co/veuzgG1P1m
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) May 6, 2021
Every parent knows from experience that the "best" places for transmission of respiratory viruses (adeno, corona, rhino...) and bacterial infections (...coccus) are kindergarten and schools. Why do people still insist it's different with #SARSCoV2 is beyond me.
— Double Individual Speculator (@x2IndSpeculator) May 3, 2021
India got cases down to ~11,000, started to relax restrictions, and cases exploded. Now India has 4X as many as previous peak. The situation is devastating.
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) May 5, 2021
To Act Now:
Town Hall with Dr. Sunil Raina and Mr. Vidyashankar Friday 5/7, 9:30amET/6:30pmIST https://t.co/gsMzWn2yQi
India's new cases and deaths are lower than the peak in past few days, reported cases are down from 402,110 cases to 392,562; 370,059; 355,828; 382,691.
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) May 5, 2021
We want to see a strong and sustained decline.
The decline is happening as restrictions are being increased.
1/ pic.twitter.com/M00fFhOv2O
What can we do to help India? Come join for the discussion#IndiaCovidCrisis
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) May 5, 2021
"https://t.co/cgAyXXVJio Town Hall: ZeroCovid South Asia"
https://t.co/ndsIRO5QL9 @Eventbrite
More people diagnosed with COVID in past 2 weeks than in first 6 months of pandemic
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) May 4, 2021
India and Brazil account for more than half of last week’s cases.
1/https://t.co/SSQRCfJS0x
Sign to join https://t.co/QNIT8seA8E
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) May 4, 2021
Uncertainty is not a reason to ignore the reality.
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) May 4, 2021
For first time, Brazilian, Chilean coronavirus variants found in Israel https://t.co/a4RLMsoiiX via @timesofisrael
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) May 4, 2021
Movement for science informing politics: Elimination is the best strategy for health and economics. https://t.co/25IzjNxg1K
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) May 4, 2021
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) May 4, 2021
Project reveals asymptomatic spread in schools
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) May 3, 2021
"A pilot project in the Omaha Public School district detected new SARS-CoV-2 infections which wouldn't have been detected otherwise...
1/https://t.co/pLDJfegf7u via @twitterapi
COVID On Air #9: The Emperor Wears No Mask w/ Nicolas Smit a Canadian engineer who has been working to get elastomeric respirators to health care workers around the world. @mrfarden
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) May 3, 2021
Channels:https://t.co/UmpqCRjGMS
RSS: https://t.co/NaO9SUmphyhttps://t.co/B1xS2jycON
Airborne transmission by WHO May 2, 2021:
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) May 2, 2021
"The virus can spread from an infected person’s mouth or nose in small liquid particles when they cough, sneeze, speak, sing or breathe. These particles range from larger respiratory droplets to smaller *aerosols*."
1/
An excellent step forward by @WHO ... acknowledgment that the SARS_CoV-2 virus can be transmitted by inhalation of aerosols at close range. Now someone needs to make sure India and Canada get this info ASAP...and everyone else for future pandemic preparation. https://t.co/nlRRngammM
— Kimberly Prather, Ph.D. (@kprather88) May 2, 2021
India reported over 400,000 new cases, over 3,500 new deaths (both likely under-reported)
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) May 1, 2021
US will deny entry to most foreigners who have stayed in India within last 14 days, starting May 4
However, there is no quarantine for returning Americans, as from China Jan 31 2020.
1/
Thank you @vetcov19 for inviting me to an interesting talk at the Zero Covid Day of Action, with Prof. Leif Bjermer, Prof. @janlotvall and Prof. Björn Olsen. @yaneerbaryam opening the program w a 30 min brilliant talk of why Zero Covid is by far the best solution! Recommended https://t.co/aN6bvlkJDP
— Gunhild Alvik Nyborg (@GANyborg) April 30, 2021
Let's say it again:
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) April 30, 2021
Absence of evidence is not evidene of absence.
Public Health England (PHE): “no evidence .. that these variants cause more severe disease or render the vaccines currently deployed any less effective”.https://t.co/bsE7a5NzBy
Important:
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) April 30, 2021
Israel: 41 Indian variant coronavirus infections
Four were vaccinated (indication of vaccine breakthrough)
Five are children
At least 17 are community spreadhttps://t.co/n7EFlzaMAF via @i24NEWS_EN
The rapid growth in India's surge means that hospitalizations and deaths will still grow much higher as cases progress.
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) April 29, 2021
1/ pic.twitter.com/mMsmrlyQh3
Cases in schools going up.
— Independent Scientific Advocacy Group (ISAG) (@ISAGCOVID19) April 29, 2021
Principals cut adrift?
"Talking about #LongCovid, somewhere between 10 - 30%, from severe disability to mild disability are going to happen in children who become infected"
- Prof @aoifemcl & Prof @yaneerbaryam
Link belowhttps://t.co/xMSnmxwysD pic.twitter.com/Ox6S41CRz0
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) April 28, 2021
Milestone reached!
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) April 28, 2021
Navajo Nation: No New COVID-19 Cases, No Deaths https://t.co/jTQN8Ri4KS
#ZeroCovid New Zealand hosts a 50,000 fan concert, the biggest event since the pandemic began
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) April 25, 2021
1/https://t.co/zsmIpCXtdb
Air particle detection of Coronavirus
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) April 24, 2021
If this can be scaled up rapidly it could be a game changer. https://t.co/4lYHgl4ISO
The Alberta Union of Provincial Employees (AUPE) supports COVID Zero policies https://t.co/F4SsMdaYCn
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) April 24, 2021
New study on NY B.1.526 variant warns possible reduced vaccine effectiveness:
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) April 23, 2021
“Pseudovirus containing spike gene mutations associated with B.1.526 was SIGNIFICANTLY MORE RESISTATANT TO NEUTRALIZATION by either convalescent or vaccinee plasma.”
1/https://t.co/gabpg6flo6
Mitigation strategy fails again.
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) April 23, 2021
The only strategy that has worked is #ZeroCovid https://t.co/9eY2SmXuRH
Emergency Debate Canadian House of Commons on COVID-19:
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) April 23, 2021
Calls for #ZeroCovid
Elizabeth May 6:00
and
Don Davies 2:03:00 https://t.co/UKbZhH1O6g
Canada imposes ban on passenger flights from India, Pakistan for 30 days. The announcement comes after at least 32 flights from India and two from Pakistan landed in Canada over the past two weeks with passengers who later tested positive for COVID-19.
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) April 23, 2021
1/
The problems we face are solvable were it not for disinformation mostly funded by financially interested groups controlling media narratives so the correct science is not reaching the public to protect themselves and loved ones, and solve the critical problems we are facing.
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) April 21, 2021
1/ https://t.co/1X0tqenUeX
Listen to Shu-Ti's presentation on defeating COVID in Taiwan and in the worldhttps://t.co/iDMbNCZQZQ https://t.co/65OiJshFtj
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) April 21, 2021
Tanzania variant.
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) April 21, 2021
There are surely many more variants that are not yet named, but, unfortunately, will be. https://t.co/IpMJXPukie
New Zealand is barring travelers who've visited India -- including New Zealand citizens.
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) April 21, 2021
By comparison, the US is merely advising that Americans avoid travel to India -- while not placing any formal restrictions.https://t.co/zEZXADWbUC
Important!
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) April 21, 2021
British Columbia, Canada, declared they will restrict travel between health zones: Divide and conquer strategy is key to winning.
Next step: Stop transmission by rapid identification and supported quarantine.
Here is the roadmap:
1/https://t.co/Uhl64neHpf
Apologies, the first line should be in quotes, it is the title of the article written by someone else.
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) April 20, 2021
I was not infected.
Article: "Catching Covid-19 after being vaccinated isn’t a myth. It happened to me"
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) April 20, 2021
[note 1: PCR tests are 30% false negative due to sampling issues,
note 2: breakthrough infections can be severe according to recent CDC data.]https://t.co/btgsOOPzxG via @statnews
How can airlines claim flights are safe when there is no record of who was infected on board. https://t.co/C4HH6mDnl9
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) April 19, 2021
"There is a new record for the number of coronavirus infections traced back to a single commercial airline flight. A whopping 47 passengers..from New Delhi to Hong Kong April 4 have since tested positive for Covid-19. That number represents 25% of the 188 passengers on board.
All passengers..had tested negative for the virus within 72 hours prior to departure, in keeping with Hong Kong’s travel requirements. Yet 25 travelers tested positive immediately after landing in Hong Kong, and a further 22 cases were discovered on day 12.
While this happened on the other side of the world, Americans should not assume it could never happen here — or that it hasn’t already happened. But we may never know.
The United States has never implemented a contact tracing program for air travelers — even more than a year into the pandemic, and even as new variants pop up around the world.
One likely reason is that the airline industry has pushed back on government-mandated restrictions, while issuing its own research and implementing protocols it claims prove that flying is a low-risk activity.
At the same time, multiple independent studies — from UK, New Zealand, Ireland, Vietnam and other countries — found Covid-19 can indeed spread on long-haul flights. In each case, researchers traced Covid-19 outbreaks back to one or more individuals who had recently flown..."
Canada’s Crazy Pandemic Response
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) April 19, 2021
"As the third wave built and now may drown us, our leaders keep blathering about ‘balance.’
"If you want to know how crazy the COVID-19 crisis has become in Canada, just listen for a moment..@TheTyee https://t.co/kr8at3AKM0
"to Quebec Premier Francois Legault.
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) April 19, 2021
“We’ve had no choice but to lock down, reopen, lock down, reopen,” protested the premier last week as he acknowledged how fed up people are with Canada’s disastrous yo-yo approach to COVID-19.
2/
“The idea is to try to find a balance,” added Legault. “When we lock down, it’s to protect people’s physical health; when we reopen, it’s to help their mental health.”
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) April 19, 2021
3/
"With leaders like Legault, who needs government?
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) April 19, 2021
"Legault, who seems divorced from reality, has pleased no one because his ineffective COVID-19 rollercoaster has achieved nothing except drag his province into a public health and economic hell with no clear exit.
5/
"With leaders like Legault, who needs government?
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) April 19, 2021
"Legault, who seems divorced from reality, has pleased no one because his ineffective COVID-19 rollercoaster has achieved nothing except drag his province into a public health and economic hell with no clear exit.
5/
"For example, when you rely on your hospitals rather than public health measures for pandemic control, you should not be surprised that 84,000 health-care workers have had infections or that half of those infections have occurred in Quebec.
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) April 19, 2021
6/
"Widespread political malpractice
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) April 19, 2021
"What kind of leader cultivates such repeated failures? Answer: the delusional premiers of Canada’s most populous provinces.
7/
Nate Silver must be being paid a lot by his sponsors (his website is https://t.co/fafleNIFfB) to promote a view that has led to almost 600,000 deaths in the US, 10 times more than car accidents per year.https://t.co/EJLPlS8hbM
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) April 19, 2021
India day after day huge increases: 160,694; 185,248; 199,569; 216,850; 233,943; 260,778; Today 275,306. Urgency of actions to stop it is apparent.
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) April 19, 2021
1/ pic.twitter.com/uoOs7nSlsp
Fire plot shows there are states that could be green zones even now.
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) April 19, 2021
Strongly suppress where it is, protect where it isn't, contract geographically.
2/ pic.twitter.com/nk82K9Ta6a
Thailand has a new outbreak with daily cases: 985; 965; 1,335; 1,543; 1,585; 1,547; today 1,767
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) April 19, 2021
Past three days at about 1,550 gives some hope it will be under control soon, despite increase today. Next few days we will find out.
3/ pic.twitter.com/dYk3wzd8Hy
Globally the 7 day average reached a new maximum of over 752,000, the previous peak of over 746,000 was in January.
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) April 19, 2021
4/
Lithuania is using surface testing PCR and is successfully identifying cases.
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) April 18, 2021
Video worth watching without translation. https://t.co/VqOgw31i9X via @lrytas_lt
More clarity on breakthrough infections (people who get infected after having been vaccinated) is available. CDC data shows that of these breakthrough infections, 7% were known to be hospitalized and 1% died.
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) April 18, 2021
1/https://t.co/qd1I02MRjU
In other words, according to this data, when someone does get a breakthrough infection, they have a similar chance of death as someone who got infected without being vaccinated. (Of course, vaccination does a lot to prevent infection in the first place.)
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) April 18, 2021
2/
The effect of variants? "Some of the breakthrough infections are thought to stem from certain strains of the virus that may be more resistant to vaccines, experts say. They also say some highly contagious variants may pose a greater risk of reinfection from other variants"
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) April 18, 2021
3/
Pfizer CEO says boosters may be needed in 6-12 months and new rounds: “We are studying the durability of the antibody response. It seems strong but there is some waning of that and no doubt the variants challenge..they make these vaccines work harder."
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) April 18, 2021
4/https://t.co/L1p76JoXJ8
The vaccine is not expected to achieve elimination by itself. We have to decide to make elimination happen, with vaccines to help us get there.
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) April 18, 2021
5/
Thread https://t.co/yOVbTNp0HJ
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) April 17, 2021
On target. Recommended (English captions) 👇 https://t.co/jYEsiSHxaL
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) April 17, 2021
Sweden: Ongoing failure
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) April 16, 2021
Highest European cases past week per capita: 625 new infections per million, 7-day average.
Compare 521 in Poland, 491 in France, 430 in the Netherlands, 237 in Italy, 208 in Germany.
Other Scandinavian countries much lower
2/https://t.co/AjCU1uP63j pic.twitter.com/CFui8UUxhf
UK: Over the last seven days cases declined almost 7% compared with a week earlier. However, since Wednesday cases have increased somewhat.https://t.co/9P65gsOKpg pic.twitter.com/Qe1nm9MQds
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) April 16, 2021
CDC reports about 5,800 people who have been vaccinated against coronavirus have become infected. 396 -- 7% -- of those who got infected required hospitalization and 74 people died.
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) April 16, 2021
Number of fully vaccinated is almost 77M.https://t.co/6TDRWPzm9o
Some steps taken today toward stronger action in Ontario.
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) April 16, 2021
Still needed:
1. Paid sick leave and financial support for those who have lost income as well as enforcement of stay at home measures
1/https://t.co/uTssnaaMEu
2. Internal province travel guidelines as well as inter-province travel restrictions
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) April 16, 2021
3. Free isolation and quarantine for people who are sick to protect family members and housemates
2/
4. Essential services with much better protection of workers and customers.
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) April 16, 2021
5. Better allocation of vaccination to prevent transmission
3/
“It is hard to fail, but it is worse never to have tried to succeed.” ― Theodore Roosevelt#COVID19Ontario #COVIDOntario #ONpoli#TOpoli#cndpoli@fordnation
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) April 16, 2021
@celliotability@sfleece@epdevilla#ZeroCovid
4/
Are you angry at those who dismiss value of our lives? I am.
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) April 16, 2021
German example justifying the nightmare policy makers create
Early proponent of herd immunity and tens of thousands of deaths ‘This means a gradual relaxation of the lockdown is now possible.'https://t.co/sq26RWBRFi pic.twitter.com/UZoFtNPSZT
Reported deaths will exceed 3 million tonight. This does not include suffering from disease, millions with long covid, or economic harm. Most of this could have been avoided by strong action a year ago.
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) April 15, 2021
Even now, strong action is still possible.
Airborne it is https://t.co/ByeuBgfcfF
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) April 16, 2021
Reported deaths will exceed 3 million tonight. This does not include suffering from disease, millions with long covid, or economic harm. Most of this could have been avoided by strong action a year ago.
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) April 15, 2021
Even now, strong action is still possible.
March 21, 2020 https://t.co/2emqGMrf8E
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) April 15, 2021
NECSI on the Coronavirus
Updates:
Position Statements:
Systemic Risk of Pandemic via Novel Pathogens – Coronavirus: A Note
Review of Ferguson et al “Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions...” Version 2
Lockdown to Contain COVID-19 Is a Window of Opportunity to Prevent the Second Wave
Guides to Action:
Individual, Community and Government Early Outbreak Response Guidelines Version 3
Coronavirus Guide for Supermarkets, Grocery Stores, and Pharmacies
COVID-19 Employee Safety and Screening Questions for Employers
Special Guidelines for Medical Workers During the COVID-19 Pandemic
Coronavirus Guidelines for Cleaning and Disinfecting to Prevent COVID-19 Transmission
Roadmap to Eliminating COVID-19 in 5-6 Weeks Through the Zero Covid Strategy
What India needs to do to eliminate Covid— A case for a sub-national Zero Covid Strategy
Analyses
The Effect of Travel Restrictions on the Domestic Spread of the Wuhan Coronavirus 2019-nCov
The IFR of the Diamond Princess has been Misreported, Best Current Value is 2.0%
Long-range Interaction and Evolutionary Stability in a Predator-Prey System
Critiques
Innovation Ideas
The Potential for Screening and Tracking of COVID-19 Using Particle Counters Version 2
Testing Treatments for COVID-19: CT-scans for visible disease progression
