Since the first confirmed case of a new, virulent strain of the coronavirus in December of 2019 in Wuhan, China, the disease has spread worldwide. As of April 6, 2021, there are 130,459,184 confirmed cases and 2,842,325 deaths. These numbers are still increasing.
The spread of this disease is further evidence of our warning in 2006 that high levels of global connectivity have increased the likelihood a disease outbreak growing into a pandemic. Community based care remains the best model for disease containment.
CT scans can be used to fight COVID
Community Content
Handheld thermometers can allow for early detection of symptoms.
A simulated cascade of infection starting in Asia.
Updates:
Position Statements:
Joseph Norman, Yaneer Bar-Yam, and Nassim Nicholas Taleb, Systemic risk of pandemic via novel pathogens – Coronavirus: A note, NECSI (January 26, 2020).
Chen Shen and Yaneer Bar-Yam, Pandemic math: Stopping outbreaks, NECSI (February 17, 2020).
Chen Shen and Yaneer Bar-Yam, Massive testing can stop the coronavirus outbreak, NECSI (March 6, 2020).
Chen Shen and Yaneer Bar-Yam, First thoughts on superspreader events, NECSI (February 28, 2020).
Chen Shen, Nassim Nicholas Taleb and Yaneer Bar-Yam, Review of Ferguson et al "Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions..." version 2, NECSI (March 21, 2020).
Chen Shen and Yaneer Bar-Yam, A linked shared space model for COVID-19 transmission and its prevention by forming closed social circles, NECSI (March 20, 2020).
Chen Shen and Yaneer Bar-Yam, Why a 5-week lockdown can stop COVID-19, NECSI (March 24, 2020).
Chen Shen and Yaneer Bar-Yam, COVID-19: How to win, NECSI (April 5, 2020).
Chen Shen and Yaneer Bar-Yam, Breaking the testing logjam: CT scan diagnosis, NECSI (April 10, 2020).
Yaneer Bar-Yam, Testing treatments for COVID-19: CT-scans for visible disease progression, NECSI (April 17, 2020).
Annelies Wilder-Smith, Yaneer Bar-Yam, and Dale Fisher, Lockdown to contain COVID-19 is a window of opportunity to prevent the second wave, Journal of Travel Medicine (May 30, 2020).
Alexander F. Siegenfeld, Chen Shen, and Yaneer Bar-Yam, A brief cautionary note on opening schools, NECSI (July 9, 2020).
Chen Shen and Yaneer Bar-Yam, Getting to zero: Stopping COVID in Ireland, NECSI (August 23, 2020).
Olha Buchel, Anton Ninkov, Danise Cathel, Yaneer Bar-Yam, Leila Hedayatifar, Strategizing COVID-19 lockdowns using mobility patterns, arXiv:2012.03284 (December 6, 2020).
Yaneer Bar-Yam, CovidZero: How to end the pandemic in 5 weeks, NECSI (January 8, 2021).
Yaneer Bar-Yam, Recommended #CovidZero speech for President Joe Biden, NECSI (January 18, 2021).
Guides to Action:
Chen Shen and Yaneer Bar-Yam, Essential coronavirus guidelines, NECSI (March 11, 2020).
Chen Shen and Yaneer Bar-Yam, Individual, community and government early outbreak response guidelines version 3, NECSI (March 2, 2020).
Chen Shen and Yaneer Bar-Yam, Color zone pandemic response version 2, NECSI (March 2, 2020).
Chen Shen and Yaneer Bar-Yam, Guidelines for coronavirus in business settings, NECSI (March 2, 2020).
Chen Shen and Yaneer Bar-Yam, A family guide with thoughts on safe spaces, NECSI (March 9, 2020).
Aaron Green, Chen Shen and Yaneer Bar-Yam, Outbreak guidelines for high-risk institutions version 2, NECSI (March 13, 2020).
Chen Shen and Yaneer Bar-Yam, COVID-19 recommendations for policy makers, NECSI (March 12, 2020).
Chen Shen and Yaneer Bar-Yam, Guidelines for self-isolation, NECSI (March 15, 2020).
Blake Elias, Chen Shen and Yaneer Bar-Yam, Respiratory health for better COVID-19 outcomes, NECSI (March 16, 2020).
Derrick Van Gennep, Chen Shen and Yaneer Bar-Yam, Coronavirus guide for supermarkets, grocery stores, and pharmacies, NECSI (March 18, 2020).
Naomi Bar-Yam, Chen Shen and Yaneer Bar-Yam, COVID-19 employee safety and screening questions for employers, NECSI (March 21, 2020).
Naomi Bar-Yam, Chen Shen and Yaneer Bar-Yam, Community action and support for COVID 19, NECSI (March 21, 2020).
Naomi Bar-Yam, Sewing Masks (DIY for Hospitals, Institutions, or Yourself), NECSI (March 23, 2020)
Naomi Bar-Yam, Derrick Van Gennep, Chen Shen and Yaneer Bar-Yam, Everyday life and COVID-19, NECSI (March 24, 2020).
Paige Voltaire, Chen Shen and Yaneer Bar-Yam, Special guidelines for medical workers during the Covid-19 pandemic, NECSI (April 8, 2020).
Aaron Green, Chen Shen and Yaneer Bar-Yam, Coronavirus guidelines for cleaning and disinfecting to prevent COVID-19 transmission, NECSI (April 9, 2020).
Zvi Bar-Yam, Chen Shen and Yaneer Bar-Yam, Opening up, NECSI (May 1, 2020).
Aaron Green, Chen Shen and Yaneer Bar-Yam, Travel restrictions for limiting community disease spread, NECSI (May 9, 2020).
Chen Shen and Yaneer Bar-Yam, Psychology and strategy for getting to zero, NECSI (July 1, 2020).
Chen Shen and Yaneer Bar-Yam, Travel between zones, NESCI (July 3, 2020).
Yaneer Bar-Yam, Unsuccessful versus successful COVID strategies, NECSI (December 13, 2020).
Yaneer Bar-Yam, Asia-Pacific zero COVID coalition concept paper, NECSI (January 30, 2021).
Roadmap to eliminating COVID-19 in 5-6 weeks through the Zero Covid strategy, COVID Action Group (March 1, 2021).
Sunil Kumar Raina, Yaneer Bar-Yam, What India needs to do to eliminate Covid— A case for a sub-national Zero Covid Strategy, NECSI (March 17, 2021).
Other Useful Guides:
Handbook of COVID-19 Prevention and Treatment, Zhejiang University School of Medicine (2020).
Patient Blood Management During the 2020 COVID-19 Pandemic, Society for the Advancement of Blood Management (2020).
Simiao Chen, Zongjiu Zhang, Juntao Yang, Jian Wang, Xiaohui Zhai, Till Bärnighausen, and Chen Wang, Fangcang shelter hospitals: a novel concept for responding to public health emergencies, The Lancet (April 2, 2020).
Analyses
Pratyush K. Kollepara, Alexander F. Siegenfeld, and Yaneer Bar-Yam, Modeling complex systems: A case study of compartmental models in epidemiology, New England Complex Systems Institute (October 6, 2021).
Chen Shen, Qinghua Chen, and Yaneer Bar-Yam, The effect of travel restrictions on the domestic spread of the Wuhan coronavirus 2019-nCov, NECSI (February 5, 2020).
Alexander F. Siegenfeld and Yaneer Bar-Yam, The impact of travel and timing in eliminating COVID-19, Communications Physics (November 6, 2020).
Yaneer Bar-Yam, Toward a disease model of the coronavirus, NECSI (April 23, 2020).
Chen Shen, Ron Mark, Nolan J. Kagetsu, Anton S. Becker, and Yaneer Bar-Yam, Combining PCR and CT testing for COVID, medRxiv (May 29, 2020).
Chen Shen, Jenifer Siegelman, and Yaneer Bar-Yam, CT testing for COVID: Benefits exceed risks, NECSI (June 11, 2020).
Alexander F. Siegenfeld, Nassim N. Taleb, and Yaneer Bar-Yam, What models can and cannot tell us about COVID-19, PNAS (June 24, 2020).
Aaron Green, Chen Shen, and Yaneer Bar-Yam, Case studies of COVID-19 travel restrictions, NECSI (July 8, 2020).
Chen Shen, Derrick Van Gennep, and Yaneer Bar-Yam, The IFR of the Diamond Princess has been misreported, best current value is 2.0%, NECSI (August 5, 2020).
Alexander F. Siegenfeld and Yaneer Bar-Yam, Minimizing economic costs for COVID-19, NECSI (August 6, 2020).
Jacob Janssen, Yaneer Bar-Yam, Lowest-cost virus suppression, arXiv:2102.04758 (February 9, 2021).
Pratyush K. Kollepara, Alexander F. Siegenfeld, Nassim Nicholas Taleb, Yaneer Bar-Yam, Unmasking the mask studies: Why the effectiveness of surgical masks in preventing respiratory infections has been underestimated, arXiv:2102.04882 (February 24, 2021).
Sunil Kumar Raina MD Fiapsm, Yaneer Bar-Yam, Was India saved by staying below the critical travel threshold and was lockdown and travel restriction the most important public health intervention?, arXiv:2102.12405 (February 24, 2021).
Yaneer Bar-Yam, Transition to extinction: Pandemics in a connected world, NECSI (July 3, 2016).
Erik M. Rauch and Yaneer Bar-Yam, Long-range interaction and evolutionary stability in a predator-prey system, Physical Review E 73: 020903 (2006).
Critiques
Alexander F. Siegenfeld, Chen Shen and Yaneer Bar-Yam, Comment on “Forecasting COVID-19 impact on hospital bed-days, ICU-days, ventilator-days and deaths by US state in the next 4 months,” NECSI (April 2, 2020).
Chen Shen and Yaneer Bar-Yam, Where do pre-symptomatic and asymptomatic cases come from in China?, NECSI (April 3, 2020).
Innovation Ideas
Blake Elias and Yaneer Bar-Yam, Could air filtration reduce COVID-19 severity and spread?, NECSI (March 9, 2020).
Zvi Bar-Yam and Yaneer Bar-Yam, The potential for screening and tracking of COVID-19 using particle counters version 2, NECSI (March 29, 2020).
Background
Daniel Cooney, Vincent Wong, and Yaneer Bar-Yam, Beyond contact tracing: Community-based early detection for Ebola response, PLoS Currents Outbreaks (May 19, 2016).
Yaneer Bar-Yam, How community response stopped Ebola, NECSI (July 11, 2016).
Community Action in Wuhan
Chen Shen, Nassim Nicholas Taleb, and Yaneer Bar-Yam, What is being done, and what can be done, to stop the Wuhan corona virus pandemic?, NECSI (January 27, 2020).
Chen Shen, Nassim Nicholas Taleb, and Yaneer Bar-Yam, Community action for the Wuhan coronavirus pandemic, NECSI (February 3, 2020).