Let's compare US states and European countries (both attached), Winning (green), Nearly there (yellow) and Need to act (red).
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) May 22, 2020
For questions about categories see both curve shape and recent number of cases under each plot
Linkshttps://t.co/8nGyIMWS33https://t.co/Brf99XBt6v pic.twitter.com/LaRqlWQ2sq
BREAKING: Coronavirus Outbreak
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) May 21, 2020
Montenegro down to last active case. Total 324, 314 recovered.
Trinidad and Tobago down to last active case. Total 116, 107 recovered
US increases again, 26k new today now, highest recently. NY IL CA 2k+, NJ, MA, TX, FL, MD, LA, VA 1k+ pic.twitter.com/WyCz6TrYLC
And Sweden. Of course.
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) May 21, 2020
BREAKING: Coronavirus Outbreak
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) May 20, 2020
Ireland 7 day average below 100, down from nearly 1,000 peak. Today 64.
Note: Multiplicative process: 1,000 -> 100 same as 100 -> 10, and 10 -> 1. But focused attention, narrowing geography (Green Zones), accelerates drop. pic.twitter.com/BLbLestYvs
US and NY also show small increase in activity, but not a large one. Hopefully, most people are staying safe.
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) May 20, 2020
Sweden continues same level of self-isolation. Bottom up isolation since March 10. Number of cases per day is about the same. Today 724, highest recently. pic.twitter.com/6ltca0gIjv
Norway winning dynamics attached
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) May 19, 2020
Austria was so close, but now increasing, today 52, opened up May 1
Israel is also very close at 22 average per day, pic.twitter.com/8Ah12a4OvO
Croatia less than 5 for 5th day!
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) May 19, 2020
UK 2,412, less than 1/2 a week ago!
Russia 9,263 similar to yesterday
Khasakstan, Armenia new highs
India 6,147 new high
Bangaladesh 1,602 yesterday new high
Cameroon 424 new high
Egypt steady increase to 535 yesterday, jump to 720 today. pic.twitter.com/0wx464OOeG
BREAKING: Coronavirus Outbreak
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) May 19, 2020
Good day today in Europe, down 14% from yesterday
Italy 451 today, lowest since March 3, 2.5 months!
Lombardy 175, lowest since March 1. Emilia-Romagna 35, peak was 980. 16/21 provinces below 20! 4 zeros and 2 ones.
UK 2,711, less than 1/2 peak pic.twitter.com/NptnXOsTam
Russia also may have turned downward, today 8,926, down 9% from peak. pic.twitter.com/53rP3FcuFR
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) May 19, 2020
South Korea back down to 15.
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) May 19, 2020
Japan 48, down from peak over 1,000, still needs more testing.
Asia as a whole is increasing.
Global fire shows many countries winning, and others still accelerating. pic.twitter.com/s9wddErNLc
Europe is improving:
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) May 18, 2020
20 countries Winning,
21 countries Nearly There, and
10 countries Needing to Act
Can you guess which are which? Answers in the attached pic.twitter.com/QTyJtntgLg
Italy's Piemonte province today 64, less than 100 first day in long time, only Lombardia at 326, above. 11/21 provinces below 10. Total 625, lowest since March 6!
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) May 17, 2020
Overall Europe is better, Middle East is accelerating (see plots previous tweet)
India 5,050 today new high pic.twitter.com/XPmVy8Amgs
BREAKING: Coronavirus Outbreak
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) May 16, 2020
Reported global cases yesterday reached 100,184, new high.
See attached, and https://t.co/Brf99XBt6v
for more pic.twitter.com/gPfEjuWbJP
Winning is possible, health, safety and rapid economic growth will follow. Let's congratulate 41 winners!
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) May 16, 2020
It is not to late to join them. pic.twitter.com/IbeGi5VDp4
Europe on par with yesterday. Germany active cases down to 1/11 of total. More European countries have days without deaths, including Denmark today.
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) May 16, 2020
Zambia has recent surge. pic.twitter.com/acjTgNivPz
BREAKING: Coronavirus Outbreak
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) May 14, 2020
We are adding more Winning countries and wanted to point out that Belize not only has very few cases it has no cases for 4 weeks! Winner!
We welcome nominations. Please send them to programs at necsi dot eduhttps://t.co/Brf99XBt6v pic.twitter.com/QO0FKA4moV
Middle East compared to 1 month ago, most countries increased. Turkey is exception, Iran down and up.
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) May 14, 2020
Kuwait 10X, Qatar 4X, others over 2X. pic.twitter.com/RyYC3n5nqG
Some people have pointed at Sweden as a success story. Take a look at how they are doing. Not good at all. Not good at all. One of the highest per capita death rates in all the world. For shame. pic.twitter.com/N5v4r4Brsu
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) May 15, 2020
Italy 888 today, Spain yesterday PCR 439.
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) May 14, 2020
Russia now trails only US in total number of cases, today 10,028
After long strong decline, Iran is again increasing today 1,958. Hoping they move in the right direction again. pic.twitter.com/YsBV9PqK0J
Excellent news for Mauritius, which has cleared their last active case. Last reported case April 27. Of 332 total cases 322 recovered. Congratulations! pic.twitter.com/2XUWrEZ0c5
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) May 14, 2020
...Malta, Mauritius, Monaco, Montenegro, New Zealand, Slovakia, Slovenia, South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand, Tunisia, Vietnam
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) May 13, 2020
The challenge is great. These countries have emerged victorious. pic.twitter.com/xxUXWXMqHe
Yesterday US reports 18,621, lowest in a long time. NY 1,610 1/7 of peak, lowest since Mar 19. Today US closed at 22,802. NY 1,504 dropping rapidly.
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) May 13, 2020
IL has jump to 4,014, record number of new cases and 144 deaths. pic.twitter.com/IA9nyI3Vdh
Global progress in winning countries apparent in the attached relative fire plot.
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) May 13, 2020
It also shows the opportunity to join in the next tier: Portugal, Denmark, Hungary, Turkey, Belgium, Malaysia, North Macedonia, Uzbekistan, and Finland. pic.twitter.com/Y5QdvkUUAR
Global relative fire plot without alpha (can read the country names) pic.twitter.com/UNP82skdPO
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) May 13, 2020
US has a very good day, yesterday 19,710 new cases, lowest in many weeks. Today even lower, 18,196, closed.
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) May 12, 2020
NY, NJ, MA decreased by 1/3 compared to last week. MA is only 669 today. pic.twitter.com/tppx7bWrAt
Turkey continues fluctuating but 1,115 today means average is still decreasing.
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) May 12, 2020
Iran another increase to 1,683.
Saudi Arabia 1,966 new high.
India 3,607 today much lower than 4,353 yesterday.
Japan doing much better, daily about 100 down from 741 peak 3 weeks ago.
BREAKING: Coronavirus Outbreak
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) May 11, 2020
US hotspots in NY, NJ, MI continue to improve. NY is 1/4 of peak, NJ 1/3-1/2, MI 1/4-1/3.
US total yesterday 25,524, today now 20,329. Significant improvement mainly due to NY, NJ, MI. pic.twitter.com/rzdJh6SNco
Middle east: Turkey 1,542, Iran 1,383.
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) May 11, 2020
Recently countries in region are accelerating, unclear why.
Saudi Arabia 1,912, Qatar 1,189, Kuwait doubled to 1,065 today.
Spain and Italy are both showing ongoing improvement, with the rate of decline faster in Spain. Spain is under 30 cases in 13/19 provinces. Italy in 15/21. Looking forward to both getting to zero. pic.twitter.com/odk5qDAi2x
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) May 10, 2020
BREAKING: Coronavirus Outbreak
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) May 9, 2020
US yesterday 29,531 today now 28,499
In attached compare NY, NJ, MA, PA, CT, RI
States with more cases have earlier declines. Why? Two reasons: Taking it more seriously, and transportation to lower case states continues seeding cases. Separate! pic.twitter.com/O0AF2JhYB2
Israel has been doing very well. Let's hope this continues. pic.twitter.com/inoR7aty1w
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) May 9, 2020
BREAKING: Coronavirus Outbreak
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) May 7, 2020
US yesterday 25,459, today more now 28,712
Brazil yesterday spiked to 11,896, today now 9,146
Mexico 1,609, Chile 1,533, new highs
Argentina stable rate of about 130 per day. Now crush it! pic.twitter.com/yfRheedYOs
US has decreases in NY,NJ. MA also lower for a few days. However, nationally there are increases in many other states. pic.twitter.com/5zZSM7jhTn
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) May 6, 2020
BREAKING: Coronavirus Outbreak
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) May 5, 2020
NY declining, other hard-hit states level and some states increasing. US not much progress
India accelerating 40% higher to 3,932 today
First hit in Europe including Italy, Spain, Germany, France continue improving
Luxemburg active 1/12 total pic.twitter.com/KIDJth5QG5
Italy more geographic contraction, 13 provinces with under 20 cases, 10 of them under 10, 8 of them under 5. pic.twitter.com/zkRytJnBYt
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) May 5, 2020
German dynamics, rapid up, but now rapid down. Close to getting to zero to join the winners! pic.twitter.com/XD6tdQFmu4
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) May 4, 2020
BREAKING: Coronavirus Outbreak
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) May 3, 2020
Good news in Turkey in cases and deaths declining
Explanation for very rapid decline (mirroring increase): 5,800 contact tracing teams identified 468k close contacts asked to self-isolate and regularly contacted for health condition. Also lockdown pic.twitter.com/tWdhBIlJeZ
US testing increasing. 2,3,4 states: NJ doubled testing yesterday, MA and IL also new highs in testing.
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) May 3, 2020
Now we need effective contact tracing along with lockdowns to reduce case numbers. pic.twitter.com/UYpuFFqdmo
BREAKING: Coronavirus Outbreak.
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) May 2, 2020
Some US states showing significant increase in cases, including: TX, IL, MD, MN, VA, IA pic.twitter.com/KGAPnTtT4I
NY, NJ doing better. MA the third state, not yet. Recent mask rule may help if people social distance seriously.
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) May 2, 2020
NY should limit travel soon from other states to continue to reduce cases. pic.twitter.com/8ncCYaZ0fm
Italy has 11 provinces below 20 cases. Lombardy new low of 533 1/6 of peak at 3,251. Lowest since Mar 10. Congratulations!
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) May 2, 2020
Russia new high today 9,623. pic.twitter.com/sQWH4lXysj
BREAKING: Coronavirus Outbreak.
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) May 1, 2020
5 of top 10 countries by population: India, Pakistan, Brazil, Russia and Mexico are still increasing in cases
Of these Russia has the most, passing Iran. Brazil recently passed China
Note: Highest cases: US, Spain, Italy, UK, France, Germany pic.twitter.com/o1I1vqJ8QB
We show for the first time the Russia province Fire Plot. Russia could have stopped the spread from Moscow to the far reaches using travel restrictions. It hasn't. Why not?
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) May 1, 2020
Compare China. pic.twitter.com/dIvLFilHff
UK has dramatically increased testing, 55k today 11% positive. Reports today many cases for a jump of 6,032. Exceeds France in total cases.
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) April 30, 2020
Top countries now US, Spain, Italy, UK, France. pic.twitter.com/F6gbvX9p65
Bad news:
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) April 30, 2020
CA closes beaches after crowded days and new high yesterday of 2,334. But being reactive is not the way. The way to get there is to tighten the screws even when things are getting better, stopping transmission every way possible. Focus is essential to win. pic.twitter.com/JxEyC9EYOh
BREAKING: Coronavirus Outbreak
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) April 29, 2020
US now on downward trend, yesterday 25,409, today now 18,401. Tests at 230k, 12% positive. Improvement.
NY down to 3,110 yesterday 1/4 of peak! Lowest since March 21! pic.twitter.com/VPl0PYuvFI
Italy continues to improve, some green appearing in Basilicata and Molise, 14 provinces under 50 cases. pic.twitter.com/fAljNj1UfJ
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) April 29, 2020
Turkey's rapid decline with fluctuations continues. Yesterday 2,392, today 2,936. 43k tests, 7% positive.
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) April 29, 2020
Russia still increasing today fluctuates lower at 5,841, yesterday 6,411. pic.twitter.com/f7wpbxDmNm
Sweden yesterday at 695 today 681. Roughly constant over about 10 days. pic.twitter.com/jTHUmiUhZL
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) April 29, 2020
Breaking: Coronvirus Outbreak
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) April 28, 2020
US 23,196 cases yesterday, now 18,823 today. 202k tests down to 17.5% positive. Progress
Iceland almost no active cases. New cases below 10 for 9 days
India increase to 1,909 today
Turkey continues decline to 2,392https://t.co/w7d2THVK1J pic.twitter.com/N334HcTgBG
Sweden pursuing a different path continues to increase in number of cases. Compare with Denmark, Norway and Finland that have declined. pic.twitter.com/KFeXyi7iw0
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) April 27, 2020
Sweden pursuing a different path continues to increase in number of cases. Compare with Denmark, Norway and Finland that have declined. pic.twitter.com/KFeXyi7iw0
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) April 27, 2020
BREAKING: Coronavirus Outbreak
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) April 27, 2020
Good news today:
US testing high, number of cases till now today 24,411.
UK tests increase to 25K with 17% positive.
Turkey, Djibouti rapid drops at about same rate as increase, with high testing, possibility of just a few week outbreak pic.twitter.com/G5uYEyHY5w
Figures for Global Fire and US States. We are still waiting for improved testing across the US.
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) April 27, 2020
High testing enables us to see what is happening and allows effective isolation/quarantine that will accelerate returning to normal pic.twitter.com/PIHbkPD1m2
BREAKING: Coronavirus Outbreak
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) April 25, 2020
US tests dramatically up again to 300K yesterday from 150K for much of April. NY, MA particularly. Reported cases up to record 38,958. Surge from tests is good news. Expand to other states.
Latin America cases up dramatically pic.twitter.com/c5B6ZHJoPw
Note also that Italy is beginning to see significant geographic contraction. pic.twitter.com/DjK2RQq9cP
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) April 24, 2020
Note also that Italy is beginning to see significant geographic contraction. pic.twitter.com/DjK2RQq9cP
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) April 24, 2020
Today for the first time the number of new cases globally exceeded 100,000. Partly due to new testing. We hope it will decline rapidly. pic.twitter.com/DDyaoBduK0
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) April 24, 2020
US test rate significantly increased. Yesterday's double usual value may report a backlog, but today is also higher. The increasing testing is also visible. Testing criteria must to be further relaxed so anyone with symptoms can be tested and isolated.
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) April 24, 2020
Yesterday new cases 29,973 pic.twitter.com/SDdbr0DQW1
For reference: NJ and Turkey have been reporting about the same number of cases but Turkey is doing 3.75 times as many tests.
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) April 24, 2020
US testing is still a major factor in the outbreak limiting the posibility of stopping it. In addition to ramping RT-PCR use CT-scans for fast screening pic.twitter.com/klYnNyWrX3
US yesterday new 25,985, today now 27,948.
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) April 22, 2020
IL, CT today exceed 2,000
Spain yesterday 3,968, today 4,211. Fluctuating. No daily testing data
UK still testing very few, but down from 40%s to mid 30%s positive rate
Turkey drops by 1/3 from yesterday
Russia 5.5k 5 days pic.twitter.com/8hu1uvfM1i
BREAKING: Coronavirus Outbreak.
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) April 21, 2020
NY reports significant drop yesterday to 4,726 lowest since March 21.
This is the brief update for today. pic.twitter.com/cNYXrSiJrd
BREAKING: Coronavirus Outbreak.
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) April 20, 2020
Good news: NY showing significant signs of decrease, slow but real. Yesterday at 6,054 lowest since March 27. NY and NJ together a bit faster.
Rest of the US together not yet clear. pic.twitter.com/HSeVdG5W66
Oceania Report: Australia 7, New Zealand 9 today.
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) April 20, 2020
Implemented international arrival quarantine, border restriction, lockdown, domestic restrictions, relatively early, blocking imports. Now breaking domestic transmission. Tests: Australia,New Zealand 1.5%,1.3% positive. pic.twitter.com/6V6OhZTAZK
BREAKING: Coronavirus Outbreak.
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) April 19, 2020
Weekend report has indication of improvement in US. Yesterday new cases 29,057, today now 24,291 lower than last few days. Tests up 167K, 16% positive. NY decreased past 4 days
MT,AK,WY have 4,5,4 after peaks over 20
Today focus on Latin America pic.twitter.com/VYoUC5gsJ3
Countries with early action growing slower, including Cuba. Community transmission in Brazil, Chile, Ecuador, Mexico, Dominican Republic, Panama, Colombia, Argentina and Paraguay. Other countries with clusters. Most countries still in rising phase, but lower rate than Europe
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) April 19, 2020
Positive: Global new cases plateauing. We hope will soon start declining. pic.twitter.com/3LWadmA3Il
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) April 19, 2020
African countries reporting the most cases are South Africa 3,034/52, Egypt 3,032/188, Morocco 2,685/137, Algeria 2,534/367. The continent has more than 21,000 cases and 1,000 deaths. Testing issues in all but a few countries. pic.twitter.com/MSGYzKuX79
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) April 18, 2020
Italy continues on decline. We would like to see more geographical contraction.
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) April 18, 2020
US in plateau may still be in geographical expansion. pic.twitter.com/p7YujhEZ5t
Read thread to the end for good news. https://t.co/XAtKi2nw9u
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) April 18, 2020
Italy new cases increase from 2,667 to 3,786, but tests increased 44,000 to 61,000/day. So testing improvement and overall case decline indicate improving control
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) April 16, 2020
UK less than 14,000 tests/day, 33% positive rate
France: 17,000 cases on worldometer. Error?
Singapore new record pic.twitter.com/t8qkDtCTkz
BREAKING: Coronavirus Outbreak.
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) April 15, 2020
US yesterday new cases 26,945, significantly off of the high. Today will be higher, now at 29,410. Positive test rate down to 18%. NY, MA back up from yesterday
Italy down from 2,972 yesterday to 2,667 today. Breakthrough to lower level pic.twitter.com/RRafx1aeom
Two plots attached compare Chinese and Italian province behavior (log plot). Strong early lockdown with travel restrictions (China) dramatic effect versus softer lockdown without travel restrictions (Italy). First Italian lockdown very weak, second stronger, could be more. pic.twitter.com/2Z0y9olrb8
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) April 15, 2020
Global fire attached. Some progress. See details. pic.twitter.com/hrmQ1sj6f9
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) April 15, 2020
BREAKING: Coronavirus Outbreak.
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) April 14, 2020
Strong declines continue for Spain, Germany, Switzerland. Italy small decline, but fewest cases since March 14. Madrid, Catalonia at 1/4, 1/6 of peak
US also seems beginning to decline, individual states not yet on trend. 10 states next tweets pic.twitter.com/65PO7mgTp7
5. PA: Looks like decline is beginning
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) April 14, 2020
6. CA: Clear but slow decline
7. IL: Plateau, not yet decline
8. FL: Plateau, not yet decline pic.twitter.com/0ELjTgpi6M
By request: Canada plateau, not yet declining. pic.twitter.com/epFjk4BLDQ
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) April 14, 2020
BREAKING: Coronavirus Outbreak
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) April 13, 2020
A really good day today. Many countries lower
US new cases 27,421 yesterday, down from 30,003 previous day. Today now 23,570
Italy drops from 4,092 to 3,153, Spain from 3,804 to 3,268
UK from 5,288 to 4,244. Iran, Turkey, Japan also down pic.twitter.com/S7JT2abiRn
1. US
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) April 12, 2020
2. Spain
3. Italy
4. France pic.twitter.com/IIngoDahQg
9. Turkey
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) April 12, 2020
10. Belgium pic.twitter.com/ka0p3jN0xP
World on fire pic.twitter.com/PAxFGxZI6f
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) April 12, 2020
BREAKING: Coronavirus Outbreak.
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) April 12, 2020
Italy: New reported cases down by only 0.98X/day. Decline to 1/2 peak in Lombardy not yet seen elsewhere
But not the whole story: Testing increasing. Positive rate down from 30% three weeks ago to 8% today and 50,000 tests. Also ICU/deaths down. pic.twitter.com/nxDTzOBb6C
By request adding Netherlands and Iceland pic.twitter.com/yZMsI0fWX1
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) April 12, 2020
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) April 12, 2020
Also growth in cases continues in lock step across the US because travel restrictions are not in place (attached). pic.twitter.com/qqLCZxbN4d
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) April 10, 2020
Today Daegu epicenter of South Korea reports for the first time no new cases. Countrywide new low of 27
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) April 10, 2020
As many know Wuhan ended 76 day lockdown 3 days ago. Easing restrictions has been progressive
Chinese border city with Russia Suifenhe locks down due to imported cases pic.twitter.com/N0nkWIrich
BREAKING: Coronavirus Outbreak
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) April 9, 2020
US continuing at about 30,000 per day. Way too high.
Latin American countries rising rapidly, including Peru, Brazil, Mexico. Why not model after Greece?
Italy and Spain another increase. Fluctuations continuing
Russia well over 1,000 per day pic.twitter.com/iVTx8SicOG
BREAKING: Coronavirus Outbreak.
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) April 8, 2020
We keep saying: Why wait? Greece acted quickly and is generally under 100 cases per day compared to Spain's struggle to get down from 8,000 to 5,000
Greece still has to stop it with stronger action.https://t.co/ZNsTs2l0pn pic.twitter.com/GLfMDqvNFQ
US is still fluctuating. NY is plateauing, but not yet decreasing. We want to see decrease. pic.twitter.com/5FMLs0uzyr
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) April 8, 2020
BREAKING: Coronavirus Outbreak. Italy has 3rd day dramatic decline in new cases by 15% to 3039. Lombardia now 1/4 of peak!
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) April 7, 2020
US: Washington state, with earliest outbreak and action, is doing better than others.
Australia yesterday has 145, 1/3 of peak cases. pic.twitter.com/mgkPp1JeRw
BREAKING: Coronavirus Outbreak. More good news today!⁰⁰
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) April 6, 2020
Italy drops from 4,316 new yesterday to 3,599 new today, lowest since March 18, 17% decrease, 17 of 21 regions lower
Spain drops from 5,478 to 5,029 today, lowest since March 22
US higher today, less than two days ago pic.twitter.com/dVagA2v4fP
BREAKING: Coronavirus Outbreak. Good news on multiple fronts
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) April 5, 2020
US today now at 23,373, yesterday at this time was 30,571. Also, over 5,000 new recovered yesterday
Italy, Spain and Iran steadily decreasing over more than a week. Italy and Spain have fewest deaths in over a week pic.twitter.com/PWphaLFI2I
BREAKING: Coronavirus Outbreak.
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) April 4, 2020
Despite lockdowns Italy, Spain, US states struggling. All countries that have controlled COVID have mask policy. Today WHO & CDC change recommendations, Lombardy, several US states, adopt mask policy. Why not everywhere? Masks help a lot. pic.twitter.com/2jAX6XROH7
Italy and Spain attached. Adopt masks, test mild cases and isolate. Crush the curve. pic.twitter.com/CMSZSjwr0s
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) April 4, 2020
India reports a superspreader event at a religious gathering with 647 cases directly linked. So far over 9,000 individuals traced from that event. https://t.co/vWcMPULDWZ https://t.co/ImmF5xNaGq pic.twitter.com/45vcWZOrvZ
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) April 4, 2020
Good news for Austria, which imposed restrictions relatively early and has been declining at a multiplicative rate of 0.89 for 9 days. Particularly remarkable since they border Italy. pic.twitter.com/Qu46d494vX
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) April 3, 2020
Germany's death rate reaches 1.4%, US rate 1 week ago, even with mass testing. No one is exempt. pic.twitter.com/SYDA1Qgp2t
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) April 3, 2020
11 countries in the Americas have over 1,000 cases now.
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) April 3, 2020
Visibility in Africa is poor. pic.twitter.com/zQbXmqoX8a
Global fire pic.twitter.com/lJb1QaQlvD
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) April 3, 2020
UK dynamics attached, current strict policies should have impact next week.
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) April 2, 2020
Italy continues on trend lower, yesterday 4,782, today a bit lower 4,668. Overall appears to be on saw tooth track lower. pic.twitter.com/GtmegM2Xhy
Brazil jumped in number of new cases last three days to 1,087 two days ago, 1,163 yesterday and at least 1,164 today. pic.twitter.com/SdaSpUgQ8E
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) April 2, 2020
BREAKING: Coronavirus Outbreak. US still in test limbo, limited to severe cases, especially in NY, NJ, positive test rate is increasing. New cases increased yesterday to 25,742 deaths 912. Today more than 1,000 deaths. One bright spot on testing may be OH. pic.twitter.com/4qAKfJT8yS
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) April 1, 2020
Flames pic.twitter.com/j5Pozlmdpl
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) April 1, 2020
Testing again a constraint in the US apparently due to limited reagents for PCR or other supplies. Help apparently needed, who has some? pic.twitter.com/htN1Uwj7pU
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) March 31, 2020
Australia and New Zealand, have high proportion young people confirmed. Australian gov stats:
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) March 31, 2020
21% confirmed are 20 to 29
16% are 30 to 39
31% are 60 or older
NOTE!!! New Zealand with early strong lockdown and travel regs--no foreigners--has 75 new cases yesterday 58 today. pic.twitter.com/DJc2rt71PZ
BREAKING: Coronavirus Outbreak. Good news, Italy's decline by 13% yesterday followed today by 22% more to 4050, lowest since March 17, 13 days ago. Three worst hit areas all show declines. Still, other parts of Italy don't show clear decreases. A few more days to confirm. pic.twitter.com/68YxY8gud7
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) March 30, 2020
Attached plot for Europe and US should have been attached earlier pic.twitter.com/Ir7Y3bv9X0
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) March 30, 2020
BREAKING: Coronavirus Outbreak. US growth rate down last few days, from 1.34 to 1.15, perhaps even lower last two days. First indication state lockdowns having real impact. Still, 19,452 new cases yesterday, over 17,547 till now today
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) March 29, 2020
Decreases in WA IL GA to be checked tomorrow pic.twitter.com/qMchysHLkE
World burning. pic.twitter.com/Noo5uQyxtJ
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) March 29, 2020
BREAKING: Coronavirus Outbreak. Be extremely careful and tell everyone you know to be extremely careful. Please.
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) March 28, 2020
US continues 3 day doubling rate. 18,691 new cases yesterday. Also deaths, now total 2,202. One week ago 301. Testing increasing but not faster than cases. pic.twitter.com/nW8rMKCCq0
Dr. Horton, editor of The Lancet: UK Government's plan FAILED because ministers did not follow WHO advice to 'test, test, test' for coronavirus cases. HCW: "total carnage"https://t.co/69c87zCnpC
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) March 28, 2020
Burning world. Actions still need to get ahead of it.
Go all out. pic.twitter.com/RalZR9Vll9
BREAKING: Coronavirus Outbreak. Today US passed Italy and China to have the most confirmed COVID-19 cases a total of 83,016 (just updated). NJ new cases tripled from 727 to 2,474, total 6,876. NY yesterday new 6,618, today more than 4,772. 21 states more than 100 new. pic.twitter.com/IK2eH2J04A
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) March 26, 2020
The world continues to burn. pic.twitter.com/rWacI7Glyj
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) March 26, 2020
See importance of early testing of mild symptoms in South Korea and Germany. Reduces observed death rate. Eventually the death rate increases as some mild cases become severe (see SK, expect in Germany) Still, it reduces impact because of care and isolation to stop transmission pic.twitter.com/BicaNiAt9n
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) March 26, 2020
BREAKING: Coronavirus Outbreak. We have some hope for Italy, 7 days about the same, today 5,210 new cases. Still, a couple more days to be sure.
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) March 25, 2020
Spain continues increase with 7,457 today, many more than Italy. Italy has one epicenter, Spain, multiple ones. pic.twitter.com/k2Z3NjF9KL
Global fire continues. China and South Korea are mirroring and not experiencing the blaze as the cases are mostly imported under quarantine. pic.twitter.com/vFiLAxfCTq
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) March 25, 2020
Here is the rest of the list pic.twitter.com/96V1OO5VII
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) March 25, 2020
Italy's regions show first signs of contraction. In many ways a contraction is even more important than overall decrease. Compare Germany and US. Note US still has very limited testing according to individual state reporting.
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) March 24, 2020
Root for Green! pic.twitter.com/cesWZfD8lI
Iran increased to 1,411. Still fluctuating
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) March 23, 2020
Africa: Tests inadequate Cases/Deaths: Gambia 2/1, Sudan 2/1, Zimbabwe 3/1, Gabon 5/1
South America reports: Brazil 1,924/34, Ecuador 981/18, Chile 746/2, Peru 395/5, Panama 313/3, Colombia 277/3. Some have closed borders. More needed. pic.twitter.com/kwXcAPCATc
Figure showing why 5 weeks national lockdown is enough. The epicenter may need 6 until contact tracing is enough. pic.twitter.com/YCHzmJd0wO
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) March 23, 2020
BREAKING: Coronavirus outbreak.
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) March 22, 2020
Denmark dramatically better than rest of Europe, hard lockdown Mar 13, closed borders Mar 14, other actions. Peak before lockdown perhaps testing related. Then stable, yesterday 71 new cases, today 69. See dark purple curve on combined plot. pic.twitter.com/JZF6oVKR2j
World Total:
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) March 21, 2020
March 6: 100,000
March 17: 200,000, 11 days
March 21: 300,000, 4 d
Deaths:
Feb 18: 2,000 deaths
March 9: 4,000 deaths, 20 d
March 14: 6,000 deaths, 5 d
March 17: 8,000 deaths, 3 d
March 19: 10,000 deaths, 2 d
March 6: Bhutan 1 case, closed border. Today 2nd case. pic.twitter.com/CwrCyp0i79
Italy and rest of Europe continue to explode. World to burn.
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) March 20, 2020
US at least 5,398 new cases, 19,187 total, factor of 1.66 for new cases over 3 days. This is higher than anywhere except superspreader events. Likely contributed to by increased testing. Situation dire. pic.twitter.com/YlYu3xq5Ek
Example from rest of Europe: Spain increased by 3,308.
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) March 19, 2020
US increased by at least 4,557, to total 13,816. Acceleration to 50% increase!
Iran overall stable, but some regions are still growing.
South Korea has a cluster in a retirement home.
China has no new local cases. pic.twitter.com/QwKvWJojoB
WATCH: Special Report: America on Lockdown with #MIT physicist @yaneerbaryam, who has been pushing for a lockdown to prevent #Covid19. He explains what you can do to protect yourself and your family. @narativlive https://t.co/QA9BUPQmUv
— Zev Shalev (@ZevShalev) March 19, 2020
BREAKING: Coronavirus Outbreak. Today WHO changed report time, so hard to draw conclusions.
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) March 18, 2020
Still, Italy reports about 4,207 new cases (Government says 4,225), which is 20% higher than last 4 days. Need to watch this over next few days.
Iran still seems stable. pic.twitter.com/a1notYt3Zz
China update attached. Excluding quarantined international travelers, only one case yesterday in Wuhan
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) March 18, 2020
China locked down Hubei at 830 cases. Total cases eventually 80,000. They sent 42,000 medical staff from all China. Overwhelmed. Sent home today.
What will Europe and US do? pic.twitter.com/NMqy0J1mcp
BREAKING: Coronvirus Outbreak. One week after Italy's national lockdown (8 days after the north), Italy has three days with same number of new cases. This means 5 days after lockdown cases leveled off, consistent with typical incubation period of 3-5 days. This is good news. pic.twitter.com/YS9WQaVamP
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) March 16, 2020
Fear mongering about lockdowns lasting for months is wrong. If we really lock down, in 2 weeks we know everyone infected now. They can be isolated. The next two weeks only people they live with might be sick. That is why it can be fast. See China attached. pic.twitter.com/B9A2cdKq2m
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) March 16, 2020
We still need to get out the word about stopping the outbreak (ending it) rather than just slowing it (flattening the curve). Still, people are beginning to get exponentials and acting now: The Exponential Power of Now https://t.co/1psOaV4hhf
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) March 16, 2020
BREAKING: Coronavirus Update. The problem is that the horrendous trajectory is continuing. Are countries taking strong enough measures? Reports are not convincing, so they are probably not yet, and it takes about a week to find out. pic.twitter.com/ieizLjbXsY
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) March 15, 2020
BREAKING: Coronavirus Update. Expanding across all continents and countries.
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) March 14, 2020
The ongoing epicenter in Italy with 3,497 new cases, and a total of 21,157 cases, 1,441 deaths: 6.8%. Also (dead/(dead+recovered) = 42%.
Iran 1,365 new cases, 12,729 total, 611 deaths. pic.twitter.com/1nSVy1ixql
Global map, including growth in South America and new parts of Asia and Oceania (New Zealand still OK, imposing 14 day quarantine on all arrivals, hope they stay OK). pic.twitter.com/9CpuPzI8kI
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) March 14, 2020
The US Has Tested Fewer than 5,000 People for the Coronavirus — and That's a Big Problem https://t.co/o6PoLm04EW via @defenseone
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) March 14, 2020
BREAKING: Coronavirus Update. Hard to see the world in flames, more so that we know that the incredible suffering and death could have been avoided, and every day, actions that are taken can make a huge difference.
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) March 13, 2020
Global confirmed cases exceed 10,000 and 433 deaths today. pic.twitter.com/mSAo0DiWbu
Finally, mainland China has 8 cases. By comparison the world in flames. By paying attention during the China phase, all of the rest could have been avoided. pic.twitter.com/neXr3ecoel
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) March 13, 2020
Many have read this, everyone should read this
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) March 13, 2020
Coronavirus: Why You Must Act Now by @tomaspueyo https://t.co/U5QAd05mZr
BREAKING: Coronavirus Update. European countries are following Italy's trajectory, which continues to explode to 2,651 new cases today (impact of lockdown will be delayed by about 4 days, still need to see its effects).
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) March 12, 2020
US reported increase to 1,672 total, limited by testing. pic.twitter.com/KXr18GAHag
Burning world attached. pic.twitter.com/uoVvJjqHje
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) March 12, 2020
BREAKING: Coronavirus Update. Rapid growth indicates local lockdown for Europe is insufficient. National lockdowns needed.
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) March 11, 2020
China locked with 800 cases, 80,000 at end.
Accordingly: Italy will have 730,000, Germany 190,000, France & Spain 230,000 if they lock today.
WHY WAIT? pic.twitter.com/wdkrwX4s6h
China continues to shift to normalcy.
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) March 11, 2020
South Korea has some difficulties in Seoul, but numbers remain moderate. pic.twitter.com/dKk9Kg1EnS
If you know about X cases now, how many cases are there really? 12X
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) March 11, 2020
How many cases will there be in 2 weeks because of already infected people if you act to stop it now? 29X
We see only the tip of the iceberg. Act now.
According to data from China.https://t.co/iOcZSDk9AO pic.twitter.com/of0AbFE6Yu
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) March 11, 2020
Note particularly the large number of South Korean tests used to stop the outbreak. Early massive tests means only the people who are sick need to be isolated instead of urban quarantines. https://t.co/MFmhUMmrX3
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) March 11, 2020
China has only 19 cases!
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) March 10, 2020
South Korea again drops like stone with 131, but beware cluster in Seoul core office building with 64 cases so far.
Global fire again manifest in attached. North Atlantic region is burning, shift from earlier pacific region. pic.twitter.com/afZstVCN5R
Figure: Fatality rates (deaths/cases) over epidemic course in China, Iran, Italy & South Korea, to date.
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) March 10, 2020
Early on few cases mean statistics are poor.
(1) When testing is limited (Italy, Iran) high fatality rate because tests of people coming to hospital near dead. 1/3 pic.twitter.com/d0vneAwRU9
The condition of China continues to improve, just 40 cases today. Much of the world, to burn. pic.twitter.com/4d5xKgXXD5
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) March 9, 2020
The condition of China continues to improve, just 40 cases today. Much of the world, to burn. pic.twitter.com/4d5xKgXXD5
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) March 9, 2020
How to Panic If You Must: discussion with @yaneerbaryamhttps://t.co/3XsIJ6xkpp
— Nassim Nicholas Taleb (@nntaleb) March 9, 2020
BREAKING: Coronavirus outbreak. We declare China a Safe = Green Zone as the number of cases are less than 50, the decline is secure, and policies are adequate to protect the population. Outside Hubei only imported cases in isolation.
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) March 8, 2020
The rest of the world needs to show it can. pic.twitter.com/ZmCPBEmhZO
Travelers that carried infections from China (red) Iran (green) Italy (blue) and others (purple), fig by volunteer teams @P_Zangeneh @mfergal & LarryWhite, data is incomplete but informative. pic.twitter.com/NUdWEBP8Eg
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) March 8, 2020
Dynamics of surprise pic.twitter.com/iLRx8yRryd
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) March 8, 2020
Great news if followed through: Italy locking down Lombardy https://t.co/GteGO4gcTW
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) March 8, 2020
BREAKING: Coronavirus update. South Korea continues to improve and China is under 100 cases today! We would celebrate but Italy, Iran, other European countries and the US are burning as govs take their cue from Nero, even though China and South Korea stopped it. pic.twitter.com/bKJ1s0Qxwr
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) March 7, 2020
The dynamics in the Middle East, and in Europe show the clear advantage of travel restictions placed by neighboring countries on Iran, and not on Italy. pic.twitter.com/cn3wsyf36s
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) March 7, 2020
Writing this is difficult. I hoped govs would act. They are not. The alternative is taking responsibility oneself. This is difficult and may alienate others. Families/groups must share decisions. Families will go different ways. I hope our first Guide for Families will be of help pic.twitter.com/M8vWadfBxT
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) March 7, 2020
Global dynamics and its contrast to China which is going well (attached).
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) March 6, 2020
To the extent possible, we will try to separate foreign travelers from domestic transmission in future reports as the distinction is critical. pic.twitter.com/e7O85oKvhG
Gatherings can lead to Superspreader events and 100s or 1000s of cases, many deaths, and much more drastic actions. We don't yet have enough testing to know how many cases are out there, so preventing a superspreader event is key. pic.twitter.com/wTsqMYcQDi
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) March 6, 2020
NEW: Massive Testing Can Stop the Coronavirus Outbreak
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) March 6, 2020
Comments welcome.
PDF at https://t.co/PAfDmwHfjl pic.twitter.com/a1b9fXzTJD
BREAKING: Coronavirus Update. Significant decline in daily new cases in South Korea--positive sign of gaining control. Iran has first decline, too soon to make conclusions. Europe and US new cases growing rapidly. More in the next tweet. pic.twitter.com/1DxSnG6FWH
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) March 6, 2020
Help spread the knowledge, not the virus.
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) March 5, 2020
Our new website, built by our incredible volunteers (many thanks!) is up. Includes interactive map!
(first version, feedback welcome) https://t.co/fEsycgQgLE
BREAKING: Coronavirus update. Good news is South Korea has 4 days about the same number of new cases. Italy unclear, Iran continues exponential. Cases in France, Germany, Spain, UK, Switzerland, and US growing explosively. pic.twitter.com/RKYKfgifiq
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) March 4, 2020
Dynamics for South Korea and for the key regions, showing that they appear to be gaining control pic.twitter.com/NTGjDdyTMO
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) March 4, 2020
Governor Inslee declared a state of emergency including use of the national guard. Please help us communicate to the governor the need for strong action now rather than later https://t.co/Y5aEpKfWcT https://t.co/HFUAcX5hmB
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) March 4, 2020
This was anticipated. We can reduce the transmission of many diseases and even eradicate them by social action. https://t.co/sztzUwUaEh
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) March 4, 2020
Finally, on a positive note, China is continuing to reduce cases in Hubei and the rest of China is mostly green. They are showing it can be done. Others need to copy them. pic.twitter.com/khTt1EUX3e
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) March 3, 2020
Finally, on a positive note, China is continuing to reduce cases in Hubei and the rest of China is mostly green. They are showing it can be done. Others need to copy them. pic.twitter.com/khTt1EUX3e
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) March 3, 2020
We agree. There are many cases all over the US now and it is time to shift US to Zone Yellow (Orange, perhaps Red, in some areas of Washington State) https://t.co/vCYUo7pGC3 https://t.co/GzzEsbIc2r
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) March 3, 2020
Most of the world is in growth phase, China is in clean up: Screening for asymptomatic cases & classifying old suspected cases. Liang Wannian, head of panel on outbreak response, says "new confirmed cases" are 80-90% old suspected cases. Almost done https://t.co/l3qS9FE28N pic.twitter.com/COSCidWlhY
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) March 3, 2020
CONNECTIVITY, CONNECTIVITY, CONNECTIVITY IS DIFFERENT--Anti lessons of history: "When the present is viewed through the lens of former disease outbreaks, we typically focus on similitudes and overlook important differences" https://t.co/QYZETVQ8kW
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) March 3, 2020
BREAKING: Coronavirus update--Italy, Iran, Germany, France, Spain and US have large jumps in new domestic transmissions. South Korea has second day of decline. (Today's attached map uses worldometers numbers)
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) March 2, 2020
China new cases are the best since the lockdown on Jan 23. pic.twitter.com/3tdlcBWoEb
Another situation (my neighborhood). Multiple cases from school trips to Italy. They sent those on the trip home, but the students were back at school last week. They should shut the school for two weeks. Everyone is afraid to over react, but we need to.
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) March 3, 2020
https://t.co/2ntw7DYfmY
Update: South Korea rate of increase in new cases is down to about 1.15 after interventions in Daegu and other locations. The need to improve interventions is clear pic.twitter.com/336TfaraPt
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) March 2, 2020
This is bad news, indicates likely there are more cases unknown https://t.co/v1iyTMomxw
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) March 2, 2020
UPDATE: The just updated report from China indicates only 196 cases in Hubei and 6 elsewhere today. These numbers are the lowest since Wuhan locked down @HelenBranswell @kakape
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) March 2, 2020
BREAKING: Coronavirus update has some positives with decrease in new cases in South Korea and constant for two days in Italy. Need a few more days to see if consistent.
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) March 1, 2020
China has 3 cases outside Hubei. But one is in Liaoning after 12 clear days.
Iran shows exponential growth. pic.twitter.com/6wtZNflZuS
We are looking for volunteers for the coronavirus outbreak response. Please DM me if you are willing to help. In order for this to be stopped we need to work together to make it happen.
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) February 29, 2020
What happens to people who are ill? Here is the case condition over time for China showing the fraction of cases since the beginning: in treatment, recovered and deaths.
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) March 1, 2020
Note that the recovery rate is increasing at the end, but also the death rate for long illnesses. pic.twitter.com/4k7GC1C25n
First U.S. death from coronavirus in Washington state, officials | https://t.co/3tDWOUel00 https://t.co/q5zMw4M0BX
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) February 29, 2020
BREAKING: Update on Coronavirus. Outbreaks in South Korea, Italy and Iran continue to grow. A few more days needed to see the trajectory.
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) February 28, 2020
Main new development is local transmission of a few cases in other European countries.
China continues to improve. pic.twitter.com/ns6lQO5Vb9
Comparison of number of deaths between Iran and China suggests there are over 1000 cases in Iran. pic.twitter.com/BzEGNEkFDB
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) February 28, 2020
First thoughts on Superspreader events for Coronavirus and why stopping them is extremely important. Comments welcome @nntaleb pic.twitter.com/g4paJrdG2g
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) February 28, 2020
BREAKING: Global Coronavirus update. Many new countries reporting cases and new local contagions including the US. Largest outbreaks outside China show rapid growth in South Korea, Italy and Iran linked to expanded clusters in Middle East and Europe. 1/ pic.twitter.com/kTqK6vKDQw
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) February 27, 2020
Italian coronavirus super-spreader: "medics presumed he couldn't have the illness as he had not been to China," he caught it "from a friend who had returned from China." Assumptions. https://t.co/9z51Y2BtjE
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) February 27, 2020
BREAKING: Daily Global and China Coronavirus updates. Due to incubation period we need a few more days to see the full impact of South Korea and Italy actions. Iran doesn't seem to be taking the outbreak seriously enough and other countries are closing borders to Iran. pic.twitter.com/7Ui2BWpj9j
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) February 26, 2020
Dynamics of Coronavirus Outbreak: Watching South Korea, Italy and Iran, it is helpful to understand response impacts. Four stages as seen in China: (1) Uncontrolled outbreak (2) First response, (3) Refined response, (4) Focused response. Impact is delayed by incubation period. pic.twitter.com/9Go1M7hjWv
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) February 26, 2020
Color Zone Coded Pandemic Response pic.twitter.com/GAPliUUzoU
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) February 27, 2020
Northern California has its first native transmission as far as we know. Now we will see how rapid and effectively the US can respond https://t.co/aPJGvkUcSO
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) February 27, 2020
Guide for Individual, Community and Government Response to Coronavirus Version 2. Please broadcast. pic.twitter.com/pbtTJlKk2H
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) February 25, 2020
BREAKING: Global and China Coronavirus update
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) February 25, 2020
Conditions in South Korea, Italy and Iran continue to be clarified. Many new countries report travelers.
China continues on track to stop the outbreak. Only 9 cases outside of Hubei province. Fluctuations are still likely. pic.twitter.com/mEjQHGm5IJ
(3) Italy has imposed strict travel restrictions on the areas of the outbreak in Lombardy and Veneto. (4) Japan is advising to avoid public gatherings and symptomatic individuals to stay at home. pic.twitter.com/Q4Q5xLS8WL
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) February 25, 2020
BREAKING: Global and China update:
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) February 24, 2020
The good news is that South Korea new cases declined for two days. Italy still growing, Iran more expected due to infected international travelers.
China cases declined rapidly again, clear provinces increasing. The end is happening. pic.twitter.com/H8BPEEdnIj
BREAKING: Cases rapidly increasing in South Korea(833), Italy(150), Iran(43) and response efforts are ramping up. New cases of travelers from Iran in Afghanistan, Kuwait, and Bahrain. https://t.co/YEcvekF3PH
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) February 24, 2020
BREAKING: Daily global Coronavirus update shows the growth continues in identified cases in South Korea, Iran and Italy. An increase in Japan may be due to counting passengers departing the Diamond Princess, we hope it is not new transmission in Japan. pic.twitter.com/coMDkU1Rln
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) February 23, 2020
BREAKING: Rapid drop of new confirmed cases in China (despite upward revision of numbers in Hubei province). Expansion of no case provinces (green attached). Today, Feb 23, 630 in Hubei, only 18 elsewhere. Informal reports say there are empty hospital beds. pic.twitter.com/ggOnbjNAs0
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) February 23, 2020
BREAKING: Global Coronavirus updates: The situations in Iran and South Korea are of great concern. Two travelers from Iran have been diagnosed in Lebanon and Canada indicating the outbreak in Iran is widespread. If Iran and South Korea act aggressively they can stop it faster. pic.twitter.com/57teTZSJn4
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) February 21, 2020
China Coronavirus numbers are attached. Of note there are new identified cases in 5 different prisons in three provinces. Despite this, the total number of cases is only 889. This is still encouraging, and a model for global response. pic.twitter.com/eoM31wR6SZ
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) February 21, 2020
In response to recent events, attached is our Individual, Community and Government Early Outbreak Response Guidelines Version 1 pic.twitter.com/aAP9gSRR9a
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) February 21, 2020
BREAKING: Drop in confirmed cases continues in China. Today's report is very low (394, with only 349 in Hubei Province), but this includes corrections to clinically confirmed cases so exaggerates the effect. Still, drop is continuing, green is growing. pic.twitter.com/TaSS4ktgum
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) February 20, 2020
BREAKING#2: Global update attached: South Korea and Iran have new outbreaks that need rapid response, Diamond Princess Cruise requires care in dispersing passengers. We are pending Japan and Singapore controling their outbreaks, with Singapore showing positive signs. pic.twitter.com/QnZJ7kAtrS
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) February 20, 2020
Video interview on Coronavirus outbreak reasponse with Catalin Matei on Jan 27 clear discussion of the priorities for pandemic response https://t.co/T7ZEFmm1KF
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) February 20, 2020
Today's map, and the dynamics shown in a spreadsheet. More green today! pic.twitter.com/MxGyY9yBWY
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) February 19, 2020
UPDATE: Coronavirus case counts in China's provinces attached. Colors: Green 0, Yellow 1-9, Orange 10-30, OrangeRed 31-100, Red > 100. Province map for reference. Yellow is expanding. Root for Green!
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) February 18, 2020
Notes: WHO data, recent numbers for Hubei include clinically confirmed. pic.twitter.com/VaH1bRe5v5
Map of China improved to include case numbers (Feb 17) pic.twitter.com/50vlbZK7AP
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) February 18, 2020
How can we stop pandemics? Pandemic Math explains: Turn rapid exponential growth to rapid exponential decline. Change the contact network by (1) targeted individual isolation (2) early symptom identification (3) reduce social connectivity (4) travel and group boundaries. pic.twitter.com/8BkEFizHEv
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) February 17, 2020
On a positive note, after two days of 8 and 9 new cases in Singapore, the last three days have 5, 3, and 2 new cases. While this is only a few data points, it is worth recalling that at 50% per day growth of the early outbreak in China the numbers would be 14, 20 and 30.
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) February 17, 2020
Another helpful comparison: If the outbreak in China had continued at the original 50% per day growth (without travel restrictions and lockdown) the number of new confirmed cases just today would be 6 million, the total cumulative number would be 20 million.
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) February 18, 2020
First major action by Japan important response to limit the Coronavirus transmission (just yesterday there were identified a cluster of cases in Tokyo) https://t.co/sGpOsSdcxw
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) February 17, 2020
One of the questions we don't know enough about is how contagious are those with the Coronavirus while they are asymptomatic https://t.co/sMOB3pGoEg
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) February 17, 2020
BREAKING: Tokyo is reporting 5 new confirmed cases today. All likely internal transmission (not travelers to China). This doesn't look good. https://t.co/hcTPUE6YZK
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) February 17, 2020
BREAKING: New Coronavirus case counts show larger drop than expected from recent trend. First linear plot shows confirmed (blue, without clincally confirmed) and suspected (red). Second is log. Third shows shifting of cases from suspected untested to clinically confirmed. pic.twitter.com/XO9SV6iNlw
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) February 16, 2020
Visual snapshot of reported International Coronavirus cases (outside China). Color code: Orange new case on that day, Yellow five days after last new case, Green no new cases for over five days. pic.twitter.com/ME8LJIEflb
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) February 16, 2020
BREAKING: Total reported cases of Coronavirus outside China (attached) appear to be saturating except Singapore and the Cruise. Singapore reports 8 and 9 cases yesterday and today. The Cruise docked in Japan has 44 new cases today. Hidden outbreaks may still be discovered. pic.twitter.com/iX4si6umE7
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) February 14, 2020
If the outbreak starts growing exponentially somewhere else in the world, it would likely be discovered within a few weeks because of clusters of severe cases. The sooner it is discovered the better. So we should be in a state of alertness for evidence that is happening anywhere.
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) February 14, 2020
Here is the linear case count plot for China. I double attached the logarithmic plot to the earlier tweet. pic.twitter.com/LrrCJ9ARrY
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) February 14, 2020
BREAKING: The new China Coronavirus case counts from yesterday was delayed. The new confirmed and suspected case counts are continuing to go down (attached). The new confirmed 1920 is less than 50% of peak.
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) February 13, 2020
See next tweet for the confusion about "clinically confirmed" cases. pic.twitter.com/mwYslBRKWJ
BREAKING: Today's China Coronovirus national case counts are not yet out. However, Hubei province announced confirmed counts that include 13,332 "clinically diagnosed" cases (no positive test) and 1,508 positive test results. This conforms to new protocols.
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) February 13, 2020
"Clinically diagnosed" cases are now used by Hubei province to include cases with symptoms but no positive test, presumably because of limited testing capacity during the entire outbreak. We note that the accumulated number of such suspected cases yesterday was 16,067 (attached) pic.twitter.com/Xg361T9Rka
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) February 13, 2020
Eventually the word gets out "new coronavirus cases drop" https://t.co/JbVBYTGq9a
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) February 12, 2020
BREAKING: New dramatic drop in China Coronavirus case counts today to only 2015 new confirmed (down from yesterday 2475, peak 3887) See blue dots on plots attached. One week of declining trend. pic.twitter.com/YHRI6Jrp6u
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) February 12, 2020
Note 5: Difficult note: There are now 174 confirmed cases on Diamond Princess cruise ship in Japan. Ships are disease incubators. The only positive is they are largely isolated from people off of the ship https://t.co/xqcfeKxveo
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) February 12, 2020
Note 7: UPDATE: Large drop in suspected untested count (see attached green triangles) indicating the backlog is being tested. pic.twitter.com/FaIqIXEBUQ
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) February 12, 2020
BREAKING: Additional significant drop in China Coronavirus case counts today. Downward trend is now for six days. Decreases in new confirmed and new suspected. Reasonable to say this is the beginning of the end of the outbreak in China. pic.twitter.com/TFceYRZmLe
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) February 11, 2020
International (non China) case counts. The growth exponent is 1.14 (14% new cases per day). Also indicates cases without cases from Cruise ship in Yokohama. Concerns on reporting reliability are very justified at the global level. pic.twitter.com/tMYMTdeIgs
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) February 11, 2020
Additional update: The number of suspected untested cases is continuing to decrease. This says the number of tests per day is more than the rate of new cases. See attached green triangles. pic.twitter.com/jxz1fjeuMG
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) February 11, 2020
BREAKING: Dramatic drop in new China Coronavirus case counts today. Confirmed (blue dots in attached) and suspected (red dots) declined. As recent days suggested, once counts decrease we should expect rapid decline. pic.twitter.com/knjRVbOpAc
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) February 9, 2020
Update: The number of Suspected Untested cases (Green triangles on plot attached) dropped today by over 5,000 (over 18%). This says testing backlog is being solved. Another indication that outbreak control is working. pic.twitter.com/fwKRbZany5
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) February 10, 2020
BREAKING: China Coronavirus new confirmed case count changes direction to decline a small amount yesterday, large one today (see blue dots)! First figure shows recent trend. pic.twitter.com/Gh0M82DFDF
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) February 7, 2020
Preliminary results: Suspected untested Coronavirus cases in China. China CDC data seems to include the number of current suspected but untested cases. Attached plot shows total cases, total suspected untested cases, their sum, and the first + 50% of the second. pic.twitter.com/KIGBRjlZAH
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) February 5, 2020
Significant Effect of Travel Restrictions on the Domestic Spread of the Wuhan Coronavirus 2019-nCov pic.twitter.com/g0VBzgvnkV
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) February 5, 2020
BREAKING: New China Coronavirus case counts.
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) February 5, 2020
Number of confirmed consistently growing by 14%/day since 1/27 (now close to 4,000!), following exponential precisely.
The new suspected case count dropped (red). This is a strong indication of stopping the outbreak. pic.twitter.com/S7p6UpjAS0
BREAKING: Update on China case count. It is reasonably clear the data shows a change of growth rate (R0) on 1/27 from about 1.5 to about 1.14. See second figure of new confirmed cases (blue dots) and lines. pic.twitter.com/yB7EpwsmpP
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) February 3, 2020
Update on global cases of Wuhan Coronavirus. Figs show an increase in past two days of 26 and 27 cases. Concerning, and global reporting may still be weak, but this is not an exponential growth.
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) February 2, 2020
Action to stop the outbreak may still be possible. pic.twitter.com/fEswFTi1Jz
BREAKING: New Case count in China - There is an increase in new confirmed cases, but it is still far below the earlier exponential (see blue dots, especially second plot with exponential line). There appears to be contagion but at much lower level. pic.twitter.com/0rgNFLOkbC
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) February 2, 2020
First draft models are attached. The first figure shows that there seems to be roughly R0=1.18, i.e just above constant number of new cases. The second figure is for no new contagion after the lockdown on 1/23. The new cases after 1/23 are due to the incubation period. pic.twitter.com/rRNqAw9mrE
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) February 2, 2020
Can travel restrictions stop pandemic spread? Figure shows the daily ratio of new international cases to new Chinese cases. Without travel restrictions the ratio should be constant. It is decreasing, at least in part due to international and domestic travel restrictions. 1/2 pic.twitter.com/1NYnGOQ6nt
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) January 31, 2020
BREAKING: New Case count in China - Not as good as one would like, but as in the past two days, the growth in number of new confirmed cases is substantially below the earlier exponential (see blue dots, especially second plot). pic.twitter.com/t3tCamJC73
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) January 31, 2020
BREAKING: More good news from case count in China, today number of new confirmed cases is less than two days ago. While more than yesterday, this is additional indication that actions are getting ahead of the outbreak and stopping the exponential growth. (see blue dots) pic.twitter.com/t9y8VpCcL6
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) January 30, 2020
BREAKING NEWS: Today's new case count in China is lower than previous day for the first time. Indication that the response efforts are working (source: Chinese CDC)
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) January 29, 2020
See blue dots on linear and log plots attached. pic.twitter.com/mfPItGlODV
NECSI on the Coronavirus
Updates:
Position Statements:
Systemic Risk of Pandemic via Novel Pathogens – Coronavirus: A Note
Review of Ferguson et al “Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions...” Version 2
Lockdown to Contain COVID-19 Is a Window of Opportunity to Prevent the Second Wave
Guides to Action:
Individual, Community and Government Early Outbreak Response Guidelines Version 3
Coronavirus Guide for Supermarkets, Grocery Stores, and Pharmacies
COVID-19 Employee Safety and Screening Questions for Employers
Special Guidelines for Medical Workers During the COVID-19 Pandemic
Coronavirus Guidelines for Cleaning and Disinfecting to Prevent COVID-19 Transmission
Roadmap to Eliminating COVID-19 in 5-6 Weeks Through the Zero Covid Strategy
What India needs to do to eliminate Covid— A case for a sub-national Zero Covid Strategy
Analyses
The Effect of Travel Restrictions on the Domestic Spread of the Wuhan Coronavirus 2019-nCov
The IFR of the Diamond Princess has been Misreported, Best Current Value is 2.0%
Long-range Interaction and Evolutionary Stability in a Predator-Prey System
Critiques
Innovation Ideas
The Potential for Screening and Tracking of COVID-19 Using Particle Counters Version 2
Testing Treatments for COVID-19: CT-scans for visible disease progression
Background
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