UPDATE February 2012 — The Food Crises: Predictive validation of a quantitative model of food prics including speculators and ethanol conversion



Food price movements and model predictions

FIG. 1: Food prices and model simulations - The FAO Food Price Index (blue solid line) [2], the ethanol supply and demand model (blue dashed line), where dominant supply shocks are due to the conversion of corn to ethanol so that price changes are proportional to ethanol production (see [1], Appendix C) and the results of the speculator and ethanol model (green and red dotted lines), that adds speculator trend following and switching among investment markets, including commodities, equities and bonds (see [1], Appendices D and E). The green curve is the fit extended to the present with the original parameter values, the red curve is the fit with new optimized parameters. The vertical blue bar marks the end of the original fit in March 2011.

[2] M. Lagi, Y. Bar-Yam, K. Z. Bertrand, Y. Bar-Yam, The Food Crises: A quantitative model of food prices including speculators and ethanol conversion, arXiv:1109.4859v1 [q-fin.GN] (2011 http://arxiv.org/abs/1109.4859).

[1] Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, FAO Food Price Index (http: //www.fao.org/).

 

 

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