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 International Conference on Complex Systems (ICCS2007)

Symbiotic Application Of Nonlinear Dynamics And Classical Methods

Una Medina
University of New Mexico

     Full text: Not available
     Last modified: October 22, 2007

Abstract
Policy makers of the future may use symbiotic applications of nonlinear dynamics and classical methods to explain and predict impacts of difficult-to-quantify social interventions. For example, research on efficacy of a DWI intervention by MADD (Mothers Against Drunk Drivers) has been inconclusive. This is remarkable since courts mandate thousands of DWI offenders each year to MADD VIP (Victim Impact Panel) interventions. A hybrid-methods approach demonstrated in this 10-year randomized controlled study applies classical message analysis, survival analysis, and hierarchical linear modeling to measure message effects that then become inputs to a nonlinear systems dynamics model. This nonlinear model allows for feedback loops, simulation, and prediction of social impacts of MADD VIPs over twenty years. Nonlinear methods allow researchers to ask more complex questions: Are survival rates of MADD VIP treatment versus control groups actually linear, as assumed in classical models, or asymptotic? And if asymptotic, are the treatment and control groups' rearrest patterns asymptotic to the same rearrest level over time or to different levels? Nonlinear hybrid-methods approach provides policy makers with evidence-based results that can be used to evaluate and predict efficacy of other difficult-to-evaluate social interventions. This study offers a demonstration of complex modeling perspectives for use in health policy formation, health intervention strategies, and persuasive message design. This hybrid-methods approach provides policy makers with evidence-based results that can be used to evaluate and predict efficacy of other difficult-to-evaluate social interventions with implications for health policy formation, health intervention strategies, and persuasive message design.







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