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 International Conference on Complex Systems (ICCS2007)

Multi-Agent Systems Modeling of Technology Succession with Short Cycles

Sharon Mertz
Southern New Hampshire University

Adam Groothuis
Massachussets Institute of Technology, Department of Cardiology

Phil Fellman
Southern New Hampshire University

Roxana Wright
Keene State College

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     Last modified: October 23, 2007

In this paper we build on our earlier work using VenSim® software to construct a systems level multi-agent program designed to accurately simulate technology succession in high technology markets with short product life cycles.

Drawing upon both the original technology succession model developed by Paul Windrum and Chris Birchenhall, as well as their more recent work, we have upgraded our own proprietary simulation to address technology succession in a rapidly changing environment. We apply our simulation to both "normal" industry and market conditions as well as to situations in whichs a technology shock is introduced.

In particular, we provide a brief empirical overview of how this model applies to volatilities in the software production market and the medical technology market, subjects which are discussed at greater length and in more detail during the more specialized presentations by our group in other sections of the ICCS conference.

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