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 International Conference on Complex Systems (ICCS2007)

BioWar: Validation and Forecasts related to Pandemic Influenza

Kathleen Carley

Virginia Bedford

Neal Altman

Eric Malloy

Bruce Lee

     Full text: Not available
     Last modified: August 9, 2007

The threat of pandemic influenza currently hangs over the world. In preparation, many researchers, government officials, medical are personnel and so on are examining questions like: What might happen? Are we prepared? What are the best response strategies? What will be the nature of the disease? As part of this effort complex system computational models are being used as one, of many tools, to gain insight into the potential threat. BioWar is such a model. BioWar is a multi-agent dynamic-network city-level model for examining the potential impact of loss-of-life events, such as pandemic flu, under diverse response scenarios. BioWar build cities based off of census, school district and other geo-spatial information and then within these virtual cities simulates how diseases spread and are responded to. Disease are modeled at the symptom level, and cities at the person level. EpiCurves emerge as the agents go about their daily lives interacting, purchasing medicine, going to the doctor, etc.
In this presentation BioWar is described, some implications for the spread of pandemic influenza under different response scenarios presented, and the constraints on validation discussed.

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