NECSI Resources

 International Conference on Complex Systems (ICCS2007)

Simulation of Cultural Identities for Prediction of Reactions

Bruce Skarin
Aptima, Inc.

Rebecca Grier
Aptima, Inc.

Alexander Lubyansky
Aptima, Inc.

Lawrence Wolpert
Aptima, Inc.

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     Last modified: October 11, 2007

Addressing the root causes of state failure and instability requires the cooperation of local populations and governments. To win this cooperation, we need to be able to predict changes in the opinions of local populations. Cultural identity is a critical factor in this process. These cultural identities are multi-layered and dynamic. In order to predict the impact of events on a populationís attitude, one must remember that each person has several different identities and that some of these identities may change. For example, these are all identities that may make up an individual: race/ethnicity, region, gender, religion, political party, socio-economic status, etc. Each of these identities has a reaction to the events that occur and this changes their attitude to people, groups, and organizations. Further peopleís attitudes change based on their contact with other individuals. When peopleís attitudes change, then their participation in groups changes as well. SCIPR (Simulation of Cultural Identities for Prediction of Reactions) is an agent based computer simulation that forecasts the effects of actions on peoplesí opinions and cultural identities to better model the underlying forces driving identity-based conflicts. In this presentation we will describe the development of the SCIPR model as well as the use of Northern Ireland data as a proof of concept.

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