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International Conference on Complex Systems (ICCS2006)

Comparison of post-SARS arrival recovery patterns

Chi-Kuo Mao
Institute of Business and Management, National Chiao Tung Un

Cherng G. Ding
Institute of Business and Management, National Chiao Tung University

Hsiu-Yu Lee
Institute of Business and Management, National Chiao Tung University

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     Last modified: August 14, 2006

Abstract
In 2003, the outbreak of SARS epidemic caused not only a crisis in the tourism industry in many parts of Asia but also a panic throughout the world. The purpose of this study is to examine and to compare the post-SARS recovery patterns of inbound arrivals from Japan and Hong Kong in Taiwan. Taking cusp catastrophe theory as its foundation, this study proposes a well-grounded approach to the understanding of the nature of the recovery processes and to the explanation of the difference between the recovery patterns displayed by arrivals from Japan and arrivals from Hong Kong. Implications regarding tourism promotion policies are drawn from the analysis. Keywords: SARS, tourism, cusp catastrophe system, threshold effect, hysteresis effect




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