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International Conference on Complex Systems (ICCS2006)

Biological Event Modeling for Response Planning

Clement McGowan
Mitretek Systems, Inc.

     Full text: PDF
     Last modified: August 15, 2006

Abstract
Our Bio-Event system dynamics model is an extended SIR disease spread model that also deals with surge options — the providing of needed resources at some time after the disease initiation.

Our model extensions include:
• greater disease realism (with infectious pre-symptomatic and incubation periods);
• key health personnel (numbers needed to treat the infected; exposed versus protected);
• therapies (effectiveness, resource limits);
• surge effects (timing and infusing more of limited critical resources); and
• population movement and disease spread beyond the initial city/region

The model allows the user to experiment with different diseases, interventions, timings, and policies. One can see the effects of key decisions such as to quarantine, to reduce people’s contact rate, to protect/inoculate health care personnel, as well as when -- and how extensive -- is the surge response. Sensitivity analyses reveal the relative importance and timing of different interventions.




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