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International Conference on Complex Systems (ICCS2006)

Agent based simulation of punctuated technology succession : a real-world example using medical devices in the field of interventional cardiology

Adam Groothuis
Southern New Hampshire University

Philip Vos Fellman
Southern New Hampshire University

     Full text: Not available
     Last modified: April 25, 2006

The introduction of drug eluting stents (DES) is a real-world example of punctuated technological succession. The introduction of this product in the field of interventional cardiology produced a punctuated succession of its predecessor bare metal stent. Its introduction created an ethical obligation by interventional cardiologists to give the best care available to their patients. Thus, a punctuated succession of technology has occurred. The stent market prior to the DES introduction was dominated by four companies in the US. The aftermath of its introduction has reduced the market to only one company. The current DES market in the US now only encompasses two companies.
Modeling of technology succession and new technology adoption includes a wide array of techniques that encompass complexity theory to describe technology succession. A current customized model to the field of interventional cardiology utilizes dynamic modeling to evaluate and determine: technology adoption in a scenario involving multiple suppliers (competing technologies) and buyers (adopters). The customization of the model addresses specific firm typologies, market dynamics and consumer behavior.

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