Coordinating National Power using Complex Systems Simulation
BAE Systems, Advanced Information Technologies
Dept. of Mathematical Sciences, U.S. Military Academy
Last modified: June 20, 2006
Coordinating the elements of national power remains an important and open policy problem. The military and civilian components of national power are too often reasoned about and applied independently, which results in incomplete analysis and ineffective or counterproductive policies. This paper proposes using simulation generally and system dynamics specifically to improve the national policy process. In particular, a technique is described that supports the analysis of choreographed military and civilian elements of national power and is demonstrated using a nation-building example. Covey, Dziedzic, and Hawley (2005)† identify four nation-building strategies – 1) political, 2) security, 3) rule of law, and 4) economic – based on America’s experience in Kosovo. These strategies are integrated within a system dynamics simulation, which stresses 'interactive' as opposed to 'structural' complexity and are examined in the context of America’s Iraq experience. Using simulation, the complex interactions and consequences of these institutionally separate strategies can be explored, understood, and coordinated. Lessons learned in this analysis can then be applied to craft diplomatic, informational, military, and economic policies more efficiently and apply national power more effectively.
† Covey, Jock, Michael J. Dziedzic, and Leonard R. Hawley. (2005). Quest for Viable Peace: International intervention and strategies for conflict transformation. Washington, DC: United States Institute of Peace (USIP) Press.