A conversation with Dr. Yaneer Bar-yam on the COVID-19 pandemic. #COVID19
A conversation with Dr. Yaneer Bar-yam on the COVID-19 pandemic. #COVID19 #ZeroCovid #pandemichttps://t.co/8ev83GVd3H
— Dr. Benjamin Mateus (@BenjaminMateus7) April 14, 2021
This is a severe disease and people will get sick over and over. There is no exit unless you achieve elimination: Scientist and Pandemic Expert, Yanner Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) tells @ShivaniGupta_5 on #News360. pic.twitter.com/nZ8Uq3ngm2
— News18 (@CNNnews18) April 15, 2021
#ZeroCovidNY is growing. Here are the campaigns.https://t.co/gIQM8yYwLL
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) April 15, 2021
Join at this link: https://t.co/WJlK1nCY5g
India, despite success earlier with reducing cases, is now seeing by far the highest levels of transmission from the entire pandemic. New cases reached 199,569 today.
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) April 14, 2021
Figures are from yesterday.
Note: No magic stops the pandemic.
1/ pic.twitter.com/bHJcXhbhtb
Brazil with the P.1 variant out of control continues to at or near all-time highs of Covid deaths.
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) April 14, 2021
2/ pic.twitter.com/WtNE76OWcE
Argentina has all-time high infections, though death rates are not (yet) at record highs. For such rapid increases in cases, the associated deaths will not occur for a few weeks.
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) April 14, 2021
3/ pic.twitter.com/sp37RbrtCT
Uruguay, which had been successful in keeping numbers of cases low relative to other American countries, has unfortunately seen a recent surge --- all-time high of both cases and deaths.
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) April 14, 2021
4/ pic.twitter.com/uOGNpcAgL7
Recent outbreaks in South America indicate what happens when a more infectious and deadly variant is allowed to take hold. If the rest of the world does not act rapidly, the same may happen elsewhere. Still unclear how much vaccines will help.
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) April 14, 2021
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Note: Incorrect Washington Post speculation about reason for earlier reduction of cases. Clearly incorrect given new surge.https://t.co/qD8660YZ6w
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) April 14, 2021
Note that new variants in India have not been found responsible for the large number of new cases. https://t.co/qD8660YZ6w
Here is article about new variants
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) April 14, 2021
"Indian authorities said Covid variants, including the double mutation strain, have not been detected in such large numbers that are sufficient to explain the spike in new infections."https://t.co/dpoT9gx38b
Check out "Covid Action Group: Honoring and Learning from Covid-19 Survivors" https://t.co/adw1Cnn2No @Eventbrite
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) April 14, 2021
Conference Sat 24 April 13:00-17:00(London)
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) April 14, 2021
Speakers from Ireland, Germany, Brazil, South Africa..
Online meeting to exchange experiences and ideas with activists from different countries on #ZeroCovid, and health solidarity across borders.
1/https://t.co/UXITIQm2sl
We are looking for community members who want to work on #NoCovid in Stuttgart
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) April 13, 2021
DM @MissMilchkaffee
"Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Director Rochelle Walensky said a boost in Covid-19 vaccinations alone isn’t the answer"
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) April 12, 2021
The state’s best bet, Walensky said, “is to really close things down.”https://t.co/4xypnL3dut
Unfortunately, Italy relaxes restrictions in Calabria, Emilia Romagna, Friuli-Venezia Giulia, Lombardy, Piedmont, Tuscany as infection rates decline in some places (but not nearly enough so that they won't increase again). pic.twitter.com/pcHqVLvonb
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) April 11, 2021
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) April 10, 2021
Good news: Cases going down again in Netherlands after peak April 1
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) April 9, 2021
Bad: Caught in half way yoyo lockdowns.
Travel bans for South Africa, Central and South America Negative PCR test and 10 day self-quarantine for others.
Why not do it all the way.
1/https://t.co/TjHXVKpVth pic.twitter.com/2XSOTtC9ur
Oceania has done much better than other continents. Cases now growing fast in Asia (see India), deaths in Asia and Latin America. https://t.co/sUv5lGzDTm
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) April 9, 2021
3/ pic.twitter.com/xxjbarNyej
Brazil figures pic.twitter.com/Dbe3Bozc9M
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) April 9, 2021
Overall cases per day are going down in Africa, though individual countries vary widely in direction. pic.twitter.com/N0XbXXJ7EV
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) April 9, 2021
South Africa recently dropped below 1,000 casses per day.
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) April 9, 2021
A report indicates that over 400,000 people have been arrested for breaking South Africa’s Covid-19 rules since the beginning of the pandemic. https://t.co/HUz3O9wFio
Updates 04/05 of our rough projections for
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) April 8, 2021
CA, FL, AZ, GA, MI, MA, PA, IN, NC, TX, LA.
Most states are continuing to track with this fourth week of data.
A couple may be headed lower, we'll see if it continues.
CA, FL, AZ, GA tracking, GA maybe aiming down.
1/ https://t.co/31jXWKw1Io pic.twitter.com/Y7seVOc8hu
NC, TX have the sharpest deviations down.
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) April 8, 2021
LA was mostly flat projection and the cases are continuing along that trajectory.
Overall these rough projections after one month have done well, now we have to see if the deviations are going to continue.
3/ pic.twitter.com/6o2l27sg3R
"Trans-Tasman Bubble" (quarantine-free travel between New Zealand and Australia) will start on April 19.
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) April 6, 2021
1/https://t.co/qi7dd3AN7A
On the other hand:
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) April 6, 2021
Chief medical officer in Canadian province of Alberta is investigating a "significant" outbreak involving P.1, the Brazilian coronavirus variant.
3/https://t.co/JftIGjkzZ7
India: Strong but late action
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) April 5, 2021
New cases surged passed 100,000 a day -- over 103,790 new cases on Sunday -- more than the previous peak to be the highest number of daily cases recorded since the pandemic began.https://t.co/YWPvIJnQ3v pic.twitter.com/6uQNhFRMBt
"In a tweet, the prime minister said he "reiterated the importance of the five fold strategy of testing, tracing, treatment, COVID-appropriate behaviour, and vaccination as an effective way to fight the global pandemic".
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) April 5, 2021
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With an increase in daily cases to a record 57,704 cases, Maharashtra, which includes the financial capital, Mumbai, announced new restrictions from today:
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) April 5, 2021
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"...with a complete lockdown during weekends."
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) April 5, 2021
In the Nagpur district of Maharashtra, there is now a shortage of Intensive Care Unit beds in hospitals.
"Videos on social media showed COVID-19 patients sharing beds at the Government Medical College Hospital in Nagpur.
7/
Here are the state by state developments
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) April 5, 2021
States where strong action must be done:
9/https://t.co/S2NEnShqye pic.twitter.com/9yLlsrMaUD
These states are at elimination with attention to case finding, contact tracing, isolation and quarantines and travel restrictions from states where transmission is still present.
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) April 5, 2021
Many of these are in North East India, along with Assam they could establish a large green zone. pic.twitter.com/AEyGEyMJfX
Portugal is at about 420 cases per day.
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) April 5, 2021
The decrease has slowed recently because of a partial reopening.
Let's review success based on a strong lockdown and non-essential travel restrictions between municipalities.
Many municipalities have controled their outbreaks
1/ pic.twitter.com/L68InwHYXw
Next set:
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) April 5, 2021
3/ pic.twitter.com/KIbgesVDWR
4th set
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) April 5, 2021
5/ pic.twitter.com/87KVq47pV9
Here is the link to a page with all of them via a drop down menu
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) April 5, 2021
[scroll down on the page]https://t.co/VQBOWbNiH2
The pandemic is currently at its worst right now in many countries.
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) April 3, 2021
2/ pic.twitter.com/lUkKr0Wh2u
The date of opening of the trans-Tasman Bubble (quarantine-free travel between Australia and New Zealand) is expected to be announced on Tuesday. Airlines have started bringing back staff.
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) April 3, 2021
4/https://t.co/7UoFp1H7Th
Thanks @geekblake for helping prepare today's update.
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) April 3, 2021
ZERO COVID: MOBILITY THAT STANDS UP BETTER OVER TIME
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) April 2, 2021
Table 3: Change in workplace and "leisure and recreation" mobility pic.twitter.com/rALFXDaLU9
Figure 3: Quarterly dynamics of Zero Covid countries moving toward the green square in the lower right, which is positive GDP growth and low mortality. pic.twitter.com/v2K9OgzNbk
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) April 2, 2021
Figure 1: Strategic choices for pandemic response
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) April 2, 2021
Control (Mitigate/Suppress) versus Eliminate pic.twitter.com/rJnTR9KxyD
"In an original analysis released today, the Institut économique Molinari compares the G10 countries to three OECD countries that have implemented an elimination strategy (Australia and New Zealand) or something similar (South Korea).
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) April 1, 2021
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"At this stage, experience shows the elimination strategy (Zero Covid) to be more effective in both health and economic terms than the mitigation strategy applied in many countries.
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) April 1, 2021
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'The Zero Covid strategy is showing lasting positive effects: In the fourth quarter of 2020, the countries applying this strategy had almost returned to normal economic activity.
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) April 1, 2021
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Figure 2 showing the much lower deaths and economic costs of #ZeroCovid .
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) April 2, 2021
Arrows (green to right, red and yellow up and to left) show benefits accumulate as return to unrestricted social and economic activity extends over time along with their benefits.
8/ pic.twitter.com/T9OE95mddQ
Change in quarterly GDP, Green row shows advantage of the elimination strategy relative to other countries. pic.twitter.com/TCIfnKrimN
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) April 2, 2021
Table 4: The case of Canada comparing different provinces with Zero Covid with other policies.
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) April 2, 2021
Green row shows Zero Covid advantage. pic.twitter.com/MnI9S7g3UM
Action!
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) March 31, 2021
France extended partial lockdowns to all of mainland France for 4 weeks due to ongoing rise in the cases. Closure of all schools and day care centres for three weeks until April 26. Travel between regions is banned.
We need daily updates!
1/https://t.co/AdY26Cr25A pic.twitter.com/vHf3zkU51c
Denmark hopes to lift majority of restrictions by the end of May.
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) March 31, 2021
It's possible if a green zone exit strategy is used. Not by partial measures.
3/https://t.co/cG3mRu5huC
Per-capita, Bhutan has had 1/100 as many Covid cases as the US, and 1/1,000 as many deaths.
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) March 30, 2021
2/ pic.twitter.com/idxz1jErhj
President Surangel Whipps, Jr. of Palau arrived in Taiwan to open the travel bubble (the first foreign dignitary to visit Taiwan since the beginning of the pandemic)
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) March 30, 2021
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"We feel that we can now tango. We can work together and feel safe. We trust each other... There is no guarantee that there won't be any Covid. There is no guarantee. However we've done everything to prepare ourselves."
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) March 30, 2021
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It is safe to say that if the rest of the world knew how to price the risk of Covid outbreaks, as Palau exemplifies, we could get to a far better economy quite soon.
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) March 30, 2021
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“Our results suggest that Florida experienced 19 241 (15.5%) excess deaths from March to Sept 2020, including 14 317 COVID-19 deaths and an additional 4924 all-cause, excluding COVID-19, deaths”
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) March 30, 2021
10/https://t.co/2ZtY4ItFPk
[Thanks @geekblake for helping with today's update.]
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) March 31, 2021
Hungary:
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) March 29, 2021
First in vaccinations and deaths in EU. 3rd-worst deaths per capita globally. Relaxing restrictions for economic reasons increased cases and deaths despite vaccinations.
Officials: "vaccination is our primary, our only means of defense”
2/https://t.co/2tCVxaYqus
Hungary figures: pic.twitter.com/WbLsbjTBdK
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) March 29, 2021
Taiwan, with quarantines for all arrivals, is launching a first quarantine-free "travel bubble" April 1, with the nation of Palau. Travelers will be able to visit both countries for up to eight days.
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) March 27, 2021
1/https://t.co/nSQRETL3QS
On March 18, Taiwan announced that Singapore could be the next country it pursues such a bubble with.
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) March 27, 2021
3/https://t.co/Auzp3uHavIhttps://t.co/PoyuN1M4fp
There are also "medium risk" countries for which 7-day quarantines are required:
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) March 27, 2021
Cambodia, Hong Kong, and Mauritius.
Such partnerships become possible for countries that have #ZeroCovid within their borders.
5/ pic.twitter.com/iCHbXY4EF1
A similar quarantine-free travel bubble is planned to reopen April 19 among Canada's Atlantic provinces: Nova Scotia; New Brunswick; Prince Edward Island; Newfoundland and Labrador
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) March 27, 2021
Travelers from elsewhere are required to self-quarantine for 14 days
7/https://t.co/VkRgXXpOcO
If China were to set standards for similar travel bubbles, it could have a huge global impact, sending critical income to many countries around the world which have lost tourism, exclusively for #ZeroCovid countries
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) March 27, 2021
As more bubbles form, perhaps we a broader travel network will emerge among Covid-free nations.
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) March 27, 2021
Hopefully, the economic lure of joining a network could kickstart a "second elimination wave," with many more countries deciding to eliminate Covid and able to #endlockdowns
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But current consensus is that a vaccines-only strategy, will result in endemic Covid with variants that evade vaccines and re-emerge to cause outbreaks. Vaccine passports may quickly become out-of-date.
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) March 27, 2021
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[Thanks @geekblake for helping prepare today's update.]
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) March 27, 2021
How far is safe?
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) March 26, 2021
Preferred personal distances and COVID-19 social distancing is different in countries.
MIT researchers found airborne particles can travel as much as 8 meters.
China researchers found 4 meters. https://t.co/8bwWlU1xqZ pic.twitter.com/v72jnI8Sby
Today Kenya declared a new lockdown in five counties and travel restrictions.
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) March 26, 2021
The total number of cases does not exceed 700 or so in any county. A strong llockdown for a few weeks can be enough for elimination and a green zone exit plan.https://t.co/MlMaIItU3b
US Mobility map from Feb. 28-Mar. 6
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) March 25, 2021
Note the high connectivity to Florida from the midwest, Michigan in particular.
2/ pic.twitter.com/vv1MstkLj5
Miami-Dade, FL has the largest number of cases in the last 14 days of any county in the US: 14,912.
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) March 25, 2021
Wayne county in MI: 7,203.
4/ pic.twitter.com/OmBBDmjFjK
Note: When restrictions were relaxed cases went up. Those who claimed India’s decline from over 90,000 to just over 10,000 new cases per day was due to magic were incorrect.
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) March 25, 2021
Stronger lockdowns needed now.
6/ pic.twitter.com/WgUlFTjRMQ
Updates of our rough variant projections using available data.
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) March 25, 2021
Multiple states are near turning point to increase including CA, FL, AZ, GA
1/ pic.twitter.com/yB70T3aC9n
IN, NC, TX, are also near the turning point.
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) March 25, 2021
LA projects slower growth, but this may be data issues.
Projections of other states are limited by data. They are likely similar due to extensive travel. pic.twitter.com/KZtXKL9vjO
Good news:
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) March 24, 2021
The Navajo Nation reported 0 new cases on Monday, for the first time in 6 months!
Congratulations!
1/https://t.co/53AsahLPNh
In Germany, as a new increase in cases accelerates one month after a minimum that was not very low, Chancellor Merkel points to presence of the UK variant as a new pandemic, more lethal, with more and longer transmission. https://t.co/9RfhbU3vKG
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) March 24, 2021
3/ pic.twitter.com/FdhWyopyQN
Brazil is also in a new pandemic with the even more deadly, and more rapidly spreading P.1 variant, which continues to set records for daily new deaths. Nearly every Brazilian state has ICU occupancy at or above 80%.
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) March 24, 2021
5/ pic.twitter.com/ZMp8b7GMhR
Local leaders want to impose restrictions, but federal authorities insist on keeping businesses open.https://t.co/64FOFpmX7j
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) March 24, 2021
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One more from the article on the Navajo Nation:
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) March 24, 2021
"Navajo Nation will continue to administer vaccines in drive-thru events or by appointment."
I can't find a drive thru in Massachusetts.
9/
Good news:
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) March 23, 2021
Italy’s new cases start to decline: Strong restrictions (including only essential mobility within one's own municipality, school and non-essential shop closures, and no social visits) imposed on March 15 are showing results. https://t.co/hkHI09Mryb pic.twitter.com/2NspIWcDYh
New restrictions are being imposed in multiple other European countries.
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) March 23, 2021
New cases have been growing in France, Germany, Austria, and Switzerland, among others.
Earlier and stronger actions can reduce the impact on health and economy. pic.twitter.com/wCE8fQx5nS
Inter municipality restrictions on travel already exist in Portugal. A comparision of cases per million shows the populatioin basis. As we get close to zero, we should identify the location of every case so areas without cases can open fully. pic.twitter.com/htlSsbGr5C
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) March 23, 2021
A variant in France seems to be not detected by PCR tests. Tests work by matching DNA sequences. Can we use a different one? Perhaps, but as variants spread in genomic space many tests are needed.
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) March 21, 2021
France used CT-scans, they work for all variants.https://t.co/edeeReS5Xd pic.twitter.com/NQ6K69PhMo
Good news! Spain is acting proactively:
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) March 21, 2021
Regions of Spain are limiting mobility during the upcoming Father’s Day and Easter week in order to curb the spread of the virus. https://t.co/I7BalSxLQ8 pic.twitter.com/8hMV222tl9
This shows up in case counts, where the recent decline in cases has reversed and cases are now growing. With reopening across the country, as well as new variants, growth will accelerate into a “4th wave”
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) March 21, 2021
2/ pic.twitter.com/f09WBg3iaO
Europe is a couple steps ahead in seeing the variants. The UK, for example, is applying tougher restrictions just to achieve the same level of R they've had previously.
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) March 21, 2021
Running faster and faster just to stay in one place.
4/ pic.twitter.com/QZ9En2tKzk
To quote @rdmorris, "Letting COVID-19 spread while we slowly roll out a vaccine, is like a person with a bacterial infection taking antibiotics at too low a dose." It won't kill the infection, and the bacteria that remain will be those with resistance to the drug.
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) March 21, 2021
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[Thanks to @geekblake, @VanGennepD and @realsmartchange for helping prepare today's update!]
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) March 21, 2021
"Incidence increased with the proportion of students receiving in-person instruction."
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) March 20, 2021
Further note: The CDC also did not mention ventilation as an essential precaution.#covidisairbornehttps://t.co/1WhHnD79gX
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) March 20, 2021
Japan's CDP (Constitutional democratic party) is proposing a #ZeroCovid strategy in contrast to the "with covid" government strategy.https://t.co/XvU8UPk6NI
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) March 18, 2021
Canada:
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) March 18, 2021
Canada has eased restrictions since January. The relaxation of restrictions and the spreading of the B117 variant beginning in Feb, is leading to a “third wave” of COVID-19. Increases in deaths will be delayed by a few weeks and reporting delays.
1/ pic.twitter.com/CrSEsAil1M
Ukraine:
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) March 18, 2021
Today In Ukraine cases went up by 26% compared with the previous day, almost the highest number since the beginning of the pandemic. The country is soaring into the "third wave". pic.twitter.com/mL3ALFZLOi
And....
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) March 18, 2021
The Canada Atlantic bubble 2.0 will reopen by April 19
Congratulations!https://t.co/VkRgXXpOcO pic.twitter.com/dhH6P3vf5r
Daily Update:
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) March 18, 2021
Important: The Philippines is limiting inbound travel, not allowing foreigners and only some returning citizens due to a rapid growth in cases and increasing infections by new #variants.
It would be best also to limit domestic travel.
1/https://t.co/yhcJ6NN6ln pic.twitter.com/8bETYj1e92
For example, in Hungary cases are rising sharply due to the spread of more easily transmissible variants of coronavirus.
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) March 18, 2021
Even what used to work so-so is not working at all now. Strong lockdowns are the only viable choice.
3/https://t.co/wozVG6LBT4 pic.twitter.com/uIqdlF7Uv0
How Australia won:
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) March 18, 2021
Timeline of measures in Australia, case counts and rates of growth show how early in Melbourne, Victoria outbreak restrictions were insufficient to control the outbreak. A shift in strategy led to the subsequent decline and success!https://t.co/wgRyCTKHk6 pic.twitter.com/FHGxo6xiKE
A new P.3 variant first found in Philippines has E484K spike protein mutation found in Brazilian P1 variant, associated to stronger receptor binding and lower vaccine efficacy, and the N501Y mutation found in the UK B117 variant also considered to increase transmissibility.
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) March 17, 2021
2/
Meanwhile... Massachusetts and California both reported their first cases of the Brazilian P.1 variant, in the past 3 days.https://t.co/w9vGwBEzr6https://t.co/eMrkOS0nTO
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) March 17, 2021
[And in case you want to know the effect of the Brazilian variant when it takes over:]
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) March 17, 2021
Brazil reports 2,842 deaths, continuing a recent rapid upward trend, for the highest number of deaths on record, and the highest daily increase.https://t.co/mZni2SYmU2 pic.twitter.com/J9dE55jcQV
In the US progress has been made and the best opportunity to exit the outbreak is now.
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) March 16, 2021
North Dakota, Wyoming, and Hawaii are below 100 new cases per day.
2/ pic.twitter.com/l1nQH6FAZi
What is important is not missing this opportunity and letting the outbreak go to another increase requiring another lockdown.
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) March 16, 2021
4/ pic.twitter.com/Mosf8XM3CR
Among states under 100 cases per day are Hawaii, North Dakota, Vermont, Wyoming
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) March 15, 2021
Some US states are beginning to reopen schools despite significant transmission. With cases well below peak, identifying and opening green zones would be better.
https://t.co/9fIeiBBe3w pic.twitter.com/szQknRQWj2
Around 10% of coronavirus cases in Poland are currently estimated to be the British variant. On Friday the Minister of Health of Poland declared they had found the South African variant and warned the country was entering a “third wave”.
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) March 15, 2021
https://t.co/Oyd3O1KXuD
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Italy is having a rapid increase in cases and deaths. As always, the sooner action is taken the better. While Italy will be strengthening its region-based lockdowns, the way this will be done is critical for the next stage of the outbreak response.https://t.co/y5yTHHiCVB pic.twitter.com/uNasOiL08Q
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) March 14, 2021
In contrast, a green zone exit strategy has been advocated by advisor to the Minister of Health, Riccardi Walter @WRicciardi
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) March 14, 2021
3/https://t.co/BAnB4aQjmt
The key is combining a communication campaign, a strong 4-5 week lockdown with support measures and economic protection, isolation and quarantine residences, quarantining travelers, and reopening normally in the Green Zones without community transmission.
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) March 14, 2021
For the win!
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Good news in US! Now more than half of all states are below ⅕ of peak.
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) March 13, 2021
Unfortunately, variants of concern are here and are growing rapidly. Now is not the time to let one’s guard down, as Europe is showing us that the new variants can cause significant resurgence. pic.twitter.com/Wbjyz9Pca9
Estonia reports a massive surge in cases. Yesterday they reported 1956 new cases - a new high.
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) March 13, 2021
To put their case load into perspective, see a comparison of per capita case rates with the US below. pic.twitter.com/QRX9LmPd0P
Out of all Nordic countries, Denmark currently has the highest vaccination doses administered per 100 people. It even has the highest rate in the European Union. pic.twitter.com/BJQJOH3pO5
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) March 12, 2021
While the old COVID-19 variants have been steadily declining in February, the new strains has sharply going uphttps://t.co/u6mJB8WyIM pic.twitter.com/C6KMWmV6BB
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) March 12, 2021
The Canary Islands are composed of 7 major islands: La Palma, La Gomera, El Hierro, Tenerife, Gran Canaria, Fuerteventura, and Lanzarote.
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) March 11, 2021
Cases are falling, and they now have an opportunity to go for zero. pic.twitter.com/TbWXyjI285
On a smaller scale, we see that Gran Canaria’s cases are coming primarily from a few municipalities. Each island in the Canary Islands can further be subdivided into smaller zones, which would accelerate the process of getting to zero and opening up. pic.twitter.com/YAi2W5B440
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) March 11, 2021
If aggressive action is taken to reduce cases, the Canary Islands could get to zero and open up rapidly. International and domestic travel could then be resumed between areas with no local transmission.
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) March 11, 2021
On March 11, the government will announce plans to ease the lockdown.
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) March 10, 2021
Will they opt for (1) a sector based relaxation, or (2) a Green Zone exit (geographic) strategy, relaxing only areas with cases controlled by contact tracing, to reach elimination?https://t.co/Uhl64neHpf
This is a good idea. Many municipalities are nearly Covid-free. Relaxing lockdowns in "Green" zones, while maintaining lockdown in "yellow" areas in the figure, would allow restoring social and economic activity while continuing to eliminate Covid. pic.twitter.com/197CZEQ1wq
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) March 10, 2021
Regional data for Portugal shows most cases are concentrated in just a few regions. Aside from the regions with the highest infections, the rest of the country can quickly move toward elimination and resume normal life. pic.twitter.com/fnAplPc4dX
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) March 10, 2021
The Prime Minister, António Costa, has already said that, in addition to being gradual, progressive and differentiated by sectors of activity, "it may also be, depending on locations, as it has been in effect for a certain period of time in the country" @geekblake
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) March 10, 2021
Progress in nearly every region in Spain.
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) March 9, 2021
Catalonia, Madrid, Andalucia, Valenciana are among regions with the highest number of cases from this ‘wave’ of infections. All are reporting significant declines in cases. pic.twitter.com/hCUd4iry9W
Take La Rioja for example. Currently 20-30 new cases per day, down from their peak of ~900. Recently, cases are halving every 10 days. At this rate, they get to zero by April 10th and begin opening up safely. With effective contact tracing they can open even earlier. pic.twitter.com/ayOZGGEz2E
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) March 9, 2021
Added benefit of the Green Zone strategy:
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) March 9, 2021
Don’t wait for your neighbors to get to zero. By restricting non-essential travel between zones, every region can become independent.
Progress is going well in most regions,
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) March 8, 2021
Algarve, Alentejo, in the south, down to 30 per day, close to contact tracing control range.
Centro 120
Norte 200
Lisbon 400
The Azores 10, up from 5.
Madeira 180 but increasing
Intensify case finding to accelerate the decline. pic.twitter.com/VZsGuix3Dv
Lombardia continues to be the hardest-hit region, as it has been in every ‘wave’ thus far. Emilia-Romagna is also surging, and is now reporting new highs. pic.twitter.com/NXI9HfbMXQ
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) March 8, 2021
Great news: Atlantic Canada is all back to nearly zero cases!
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) March 7, 2021
Fantastic job by New Brunswick to tackle their outbreak in January, and a very quick recovery in Newfoundland and Labrador, crushing their outbreak in just a few weeks. pic.twitter.com/v9YTY1Uir6
Vaccine rollout in Canada has been slow compared to US and UK.
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) March 7, 2021
Still, even in Israel, with highest vaccinations per capita, case rates remain very high at nearly 4000 cases per day. Don’t rely on vaccine rollout to end the pandemic. pic.twitter.com/EO1D47ugIr
France is going in the wrong direction. The Prime Minister considers imposing localized weekend lockdowns in areas with high infection rates: a policy which is likely to frustrate citizens and have almost no effect on cases. https://t.co/Y7Jy3pNZe6 pic.twitter.com/7tysCLC1QM
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) March 6, 2021
Some good news: the US reported a significant reduction in cases in 2021, down to ~1/3 of peak.
— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) March 6, 2021
The vaccine rollout is still in its early stages and variants are present, now is no time to let up on restrictions. pic.twitter.com/zXV7xD0ONE
NECSI on the Coronavirus
Updates:
Position Statements:
Systemic Risk of Pandemic via Novel Pathogens – Coronavirus: A Note
Review of Ferguson et al “Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions...” Version 2
Lockdown to Contain COVID-19 Is a Window of Opportunity to Prevent the Second Wave
Guides to Action:
Individual, Community and Government Early Outbreak Response Guidelines Version 3
Coronavirus Guide for Supermarkets, Grocery Stores, and Pharmacies
COVID-19 Employee Safety and Screening Questions for Employers
Special Guidelines for Medical Workers During the COVID-19 Pandemic
Coronavirus Guidelines for Cleaning and Disinfecting to Prevent COVID-19 Transmission
Roadmap to Eliminating COVID-19 in 5-6 Weeks Through the Zero Covid Strategy
What India needs to do to eliminate Covid— A case for a sub-national Zero Covid Strategy
Analyses
The Effect of Travel Restrictions on the Domestic Spread of the Wuhan Coronavirus 2019-nCov
The IFR of the Diamond Princess has been Misreported, Best Current Value is 2.0%
Long-range Interaction and Evolutionary Stability in a Predator-Prey System
Critiques
Innovation Ideas
The Potential for Screening and Tracking of COVID-19 Using Particle Counters Version 2
Testing Treatments for COVID-19: CT-scans for visible disease progression
